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Philip J. Klotzbach full list of publications

Learn more about Philip J. Klotzbach's current and past research

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2024

• Barbero, Tyler W., and Bell, Michael M. and Chen, Jan-Huey and Klotzbach, Philip J., 2024: A Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16, e2023MS004008 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004008

• Savin S. Chand and Kevin J. E. Walsh and Suzana J. Camargo and James P. Kossin and Kevin J. Tory and Michael F. Wehner and Johnny C. L. Chan and Philip J. Klotzbach and Andrew J. Dowdy and Samuel S. Bell and Hamish A. Ramsay and Hiroyuki Murakami, 2024: Reply to: Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends. Nature Climate Change, 14 , https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01880-5

2023

• Cai, Yuhao, and Zhao, Haikun and Klotzbach, Philip J., and Raga, Graciela B. and Xu, Jing, and Wu, Liquang, and Han, Xiang, and He, Bian and Cao, Jian, 2023: Can Tibetan Plateau Snow Depth Influence the Interannual Association between Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures and Rapidly Intensifying Typhoons?. Journal of Climate, 36 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0697.1

• Schreck III, Carl J. and Vitart, Frédéric and Camargo, Suzana J. and Camp, Joanne and Darlow, James and Elsberry, Russell and Gottschalck, Jon and Gregory, Paul and Hansen, Kurt and Jackson, Justyn and Janiga, Matthew A. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Chia-Ying, Lee and Long, Lindsey and Masuo, Nakano and Kazuto, Takemura and Yuhei, Takaya and Ventrice, Michael J. and Zhuo, Wang, 2023: Advances in tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time scales during 2019-2022. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.06.004

• Yuqi Zang, and Haikun Zhao, and Philip J. Klotzbach, and Chao Wang, and Jian Cao, 2023: Relationship between the South Asian High and Western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis. Atmospheric Research, 281 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106491

• Haikun Zhao, and Yunjie Jiang, and Kai Zhao, and Jian Cao, and Philip J. Klotzbach, and Graciela B. Raga, and Liguang Wu, 2023: On the relationship between eastern China aerosols and western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Atmospheric Research, , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106604

• Song, Jinjie, and Klotzbach, Philip J., and Qingyuan, Liu, and Duan, Yihong, 2023: Decadal changes in rapid intensification of western North Pacific tropical cyclones modulated by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Environmental Research Communications, 5 , https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ace762

• Song, Jinjie, and Klotzbach, Philip J., and Wei, Na, and Duan, Yihong, 2023: Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation by central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation on decadal and interannual timescales. International Journal of Climatology, 43 , https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7777

• Song, Jinjie, and Klotzbach, Philip J., and Wang, Yi-Fan, and Wei, Na, and Duan, Yihong, 2023: Asymmetric influence of the Pacific meridional mode on tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. International Journal of Climatology, 43 , https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8220

• Song, Jinjie, and Klotzbach, Philip J., and Wei, Na, and Duan, Yihong, 2023: What Controls the Interannual Variation in Rapid Intensification Magnitude of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones?. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL105084 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105084

• Chuan-Chieh Chang and Sandro W. Lubis and Karthik Balaguru and L. Ruby Leung and Samson M. Hagos and Philip J. Klotzbach, 2023: An Extratropical Pathway for the Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Influence on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. Journal of Climate, 36 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0251.1

• DesRosiers, A., M. M. Bell, P. Klotzbach, M. Fischer, and P. Reasor, 2023: Observed Relationships between Tropical Cyclone Vortex Height, Intensity, and Intensification Rate. Geophys. Res. Letters, 50, e2022GL101877 ,

• Klotzbach, P. J, and C. J. Schreck, and G. P. Compo, and K. M. Wood and E. C. J. Oliver and S. G. Bowen, and M. M. Bell, 2023: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Continental United States Hurricane Landfalls. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL102762 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102762

• Shufen Zhang and Haikun Zhao and Philip J. Klotzbach and Xianan Jiang and Guosen Chen and Shaohua Chen, 2023: Interannual Variability in the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Modulates the Meridional Migration of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis. Journal of Climate, 36 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0406.1

• Song, Jinjie, and Klotzbach, Philip J., and Qingyuan, Liu, and Duan, Yihong, 2023: Quasi-biennial modulation of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones by the western North Pacific monsoon. Environmental Research Communications, 5 , https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acd43b

2022

• Klotzbach, P. J, D. R. Chavas, M. M. Bell, S. G. Bowen, E. J. Gibney, and C. J. Schreck, 2022: Characterizing Continental US Hurricane Risk: Which Intensity Metric Is Best?. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 127, e2022JD037030 , https://doi. org/10.1029/2022JD037030

• Klotzbach, P.J., K. M. Wood, C. J. Schreck, S. G. Bowen, C. M. Patricola, and M. M. Bell, 2022: Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021. Geophys. Res. Letters, 49, e2021GL095774 , https://doi. org/10.1029/2021GL095774

• Klotzbach, P. J., K. M. Wood, M. M. Bell, E. S. Blake, S. G. Bowen, L.-P. Caron, J. M. Collins, E. J. Gibney, C. J. Schreck III; R. E. Truchelut, 2022: A Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 103, E110-E128 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1

• Jones, J., M. M. Bell, P. J. Klotzbach, and E. A. Barnes, 2022: Wintertime Rossby Wave Breaking Persistence in Extended-range Seasonal Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. Journal of Climate, 35, 2133-2147 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0213.1

• Savin S. Chand and Kevin J. E. Walsh and Suzana J. Camargo and James P. Kossin and Kevin J. Tory and Michael F. Wehner and Johnny C. L. Chan and Philip J. Klotzbach and Andrew J. Dowdy and Samuel S. Bell and Hamish A. Ramsay and Hiroyuki Murakami, 2022: Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming. Nature Climate Change, 12 , https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4

2021

• Schreck, C. J., Klotzbach, P. J., & Bell, M. M, 2021: Optimal climate normals for North Atlantic hurricane activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL092864 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.06.010

2020

• Saunders, M. A., P. J. Klotzbach, A. S. R. Lea, C. J. Schreck, M. M. Bell, 2020: Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season. Earth and Space Science, 7, e2019EA000852 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000852

• Klotzbach, P. J., M. M. Bell, S. G. Bowen, E. J. Gibney, K. R. Knapp, and C. J. Schreck III, 2020: Surface pressure a more skillful predictor of normalized hurricane damage than maximum sustained wind. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, E830–E846 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0062.1

• Caron, L.-P., F. Massonet, P. J. Klotzbach, T. J. Philp, J. Stroeve, 2020: Making Seasonal Outlooks of Arctic Sea Ice and Atlantic Hurricanes Valuable—Not Just Skillful. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, E36-E42 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0314.1

• Klotzbach, P. J., L.-P. Caron, M. M. Bell, 2020: A statistical/dynamical model for North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL089357 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089357

• Klotzbach, P. J., C. J. Schreck III, G. P. Compo, S. G. Bowen, E. J. Gibney, E. C. J. Oliver, M. M. Bell, 2020: The record-breaking 1933 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, published , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0330.1

• Song, J., P. J. Klotzbach, and Y. Duan, 2020: Relationship between spring tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology, vol 16, issue 1 , https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6703

• Song, J., Y. Duan, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2020: Revisiting the relationship between tropical cyclone size and intensity over the western North Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088217 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088217

• Song, J., P. J. Klotzbach, and Y. Duan, 2020: Increasing trend in rapid intensification magnitude of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 084043 , https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9140

• Wood, K. M., P. J. Klotzbach, J. M. Collins, R. E. Truchelut, L.-P. Caron, and C. J. Schreck III, 2020: Factors affecting the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season and the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087781 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087781

• Jones, Jhordanne J., Michael M. Bell, Philip J. Klotzbach, 2020: Tropical and Subtropical North Atlantic Vertical Wind Shear and Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity. Journal of Climate, vol 33, issue 13 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0474.1

2019

• Zhao, H., L. Wu, C. Wang, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Consistent late onset of the western North Pacific tropical cyclone season following major El Nino events. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 97, 673-688 , https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-039

• Zhao, H., S. Chen, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Recent strengthening of the relationship between the western North Pacific monsoon and western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity during the boreal summer. Journal of Climate, 32, 8283-8299 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0016.1

• Zhao, H., J. Zhang, P. J. Klotzbach, and S. Chen, 2019: Recent increased co-variability of tropical cyclogenesis latitude-longitude over the western North Pacific during the extended boreal summer. Journal of Climate, 32, 8167-8179 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0009.1

• Zhao, H., X. Jiang, L. Wu, P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Multi-scale interactions of equatorial waves associated with tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 52, 3023-3038 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4307-z

• Zhao, H., X. Jiang, L. Wu, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Multi-scale interactions of equatorial waves associated with tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 52, 3023-3038 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4307-z

• Zhao, H., S. Chen, G. B. Raga, P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Recent decrease in genesis productivity of tropical cloud clusters over the Western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 52, 5819-5831 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4477-8

• Wood, K., P. J. Klotzbach, J. M. Collins, and C. J. Schreck III, 2019: The record-setting 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 10072-10081 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083657

• Wahiduzzaman, M., E. C. J. Oliver, P. J. Klotzbach, S. J. Wotherspoon, N. J. Holbrook, 2019: A Statistical Seasonal Forecast Model of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones using the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 934-952 , https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5853

• Song, J., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Relationship between the Pacific-North American pattern and the frequency of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 6118-6127 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082925

• Klotzbach, P. J., E. Blake, J. Camp, L.-P. Caron, J. C. L. Chan, N.-Y. Kang, Y. Kuleshov, S.-M. Lee, H. Murakami, M. Saunders, Y. Takaya, F. Vitart, R. Zhan, 2019: Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 8, 134-149 , https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.03

• Klotzbach, P. J., A. Santra, H. H. Hendon, M. M. Bell, C. Lucas, A. G. Marshall, E. C. J. Oliver, 2019: On the Emerging Relationship between the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Scientific Reports, 9, 2981 , https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-40034-6

• Camargo, S. J., J. Camp, R. L. Elsberry, P. A. Gregory, P. J. Klotzbach, C. J. Schreck III, A. H. Sobel, M. J. Ventrice, F. Vitart, Z. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, M. Yamaguchi, and R. Zhan, 2019: Tropical cyclone prediction on sub-seasonal timescales. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 8, 150-165 , https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.04

• Bhardwaj. P., O. Singh, D. R. Pattaniak, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Modulation of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone activity by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Atmospheric Research, 229, 23-38 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.06.010

2018

• Klotzbach, P. J., S. G. Bowen, R. Pielke Jr., and M. M. Bell, 2018: Continental United States landfall frequency and associated damage: Observations and future risks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 1359-1376.

• Klotzbach, P. J., C. J. Schreck III, J. M. Collins, M. M. Bell, E. S. Blake, and D. R. Roache, 2018: The extremely active 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 3425-3443.

• Song, J., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2018: What has controlled the poleward migration of annual averaged location of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity over the western North Pacific since 1961? Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1148-1156.

• Zhao, H., G. B. Raga, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2018: Impact of the boreal summer quasi-biweekly oscillation on Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Int. Journ. Clim., 38, 1353-1365.

• Wang, S.-Y., L. Zhao, J.-H. Yoon, P. J. Klotzbach, and R. Gillies, 2018: Attribution of climate effects on Hurricane Harvey's extreme rainfall in Texas. Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 054014.

• Patricola, C. M., S. J. Camargo, P. J. Klotzbach, R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2018: The influence of ENSO flavors on western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 31, 5395-5416.

• Song, J., P. J. Klotzbach, J. Ting, and Y. Wang, 2018: The increasing variability of tropical cyclone maximum lifetime intensity. Scientific Reports, 8, 16641.

• Zhao, H., X. Duan, G. B. Raga, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2018: Changes in characteristics of rapidly intensifying western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to climate regime shifts. J. Climate, 31, 8163-8179.

• Weinkle, J., C. Landsea, D. Collins, R. Masulin, R. P. Crompton, P. J. Klotzbach, and R. Pielke Jr., 2018: Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900-2017. Nature Sustainability, 1, 808-813.

• Zhao, H., S. Chen, P. J. Klotzbach, and G. B. Raga, 2018: Impact of the extended boreal summer Madden-Julian Oscillation on western North Pacific tropical cloud cluster genesis productivity. J. Climate, 31, 9175-9191.

2017

• Klotzbach, P. J., J. C. L. Chan, P. J. Fitzpatrick, W. M. Frank, C. W. Landsea, and J. L. McBride, 2017: The science of William M. Gray: His contributions to the knowledge of tropical meteorology and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 2311-2336.

• Saunders, M. A., P. J. Klotzbach, and A. S. R. Lea, 2017: Replicating annual North Atlantic hurricane activity 1878-2012 from environmental variables. JGR-Atmospheres, 122, 6284-6297.

• Ghelani, R. P. S., E. C. J. Oliver, N. J. Holbrook, M. C. Wheeler, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2017: Joint modulation of intraseasonal rainfall in tropical Australia by the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10,754-10,761.

• Richman, M. B., L. M. Leslie, H. A. Ramsay, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2017: Reducing tropical cyclone prediction errors using machine learning approaches. Procedia Computer Science, 114, 314-323.

2016

• Klotzbach, P. J., E. C. J. Oliver, R. Leeper, and C. J. Schreck III, 2016: The relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and southeastern New England snowfall. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 1355-1362.

• Collins, J. M., P. J. Klotzbach, R. N. Maue, D. R. Roache, E. S. Blake, C. H. Paxton and C. A. Mehta, 2016: The record-breaking 2015 hurricane season in the Eastern North Pacific: An analysis of environmental conditions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9217-9224.

• Song, J., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2016: Wind structure discrepancies between two best-track data sets for western North Pacific tropical cyclones. J. Climate, 45, 4533-4551.

2015

• Klotzbach, P. J., and E. C. J. Oliver, 2015: Modulation of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) from 1905-2011. J. Climate, 28, 204-217.

• Klotzbach, P. J., and E. C. J. Oliver, 2015: Variations in global tropical cyclone activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation since the midtwentieth century. Geophys. Res. Lett, 42, 4199-4207.

• Klotzbach, P. J., W. M. Gray, and C. T. Fogarty, 2015: Active Atlantic hurricane era at its end? Nature Geoscience, 8, 737-738.

• Klotzbach, P. J., and C. W. Landsea, 2015: Extremely intense hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 years. J. Climate, 28, 7621-7629.

• Moon, I-J, S-H Kim, P. J. Klotzbach, and J. C. L. Chan, 2015: Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shift of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones. Env. Res. Lett, 10, 104004.

• Walsh, K. J., J. L. McBride, P. J. Klotzbach, S. Balachandran, S. J. Camargo, G. Holland, T. R. Knutson, J. Kossin, T.-C. Lee, and A. Sobel, 2015: Tropical cyclones and climate change. WIREs Climate Change, 7, 65-89.

2014

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2014: The Madden-Julian Oscillation's impacts on worldwide tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 27, 2317-2330.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2014: Prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin accumulated cyclone energy from 1 July. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 115-121.

2013

• Klotzbach, P. J., and E. S. Blake, 2013: North Central Pacific tropical cyclones: Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J. Climate, 26, 7720-7733.

2012

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2012: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Atlantic basin tropical cyclone rapid intensification. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D14104.

2011

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: The influence of El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on Caribbean tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 24, 721-731.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: El Niño - Southern Oscillation's Impact on Atlantic Basin hurricanes and U.S. landfalls. J. Climate, 24, 1252-1263.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: A simplified Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction scheme from 1 August. Geophys. Res. Lett, 38, L16710.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: Forecasting October-November Caribbean hurricane days. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D18117.

2010

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2010: On the Madden-Julian oscillation - Atlantic hurricane relationship. J. Climate, 23, 282-293.

• Christy, J. R., B. Herman, R. Pielke Sr., P. J. Klotzbach, R. T. McNider, J. Hnilo, R. W. Spencer, T. Chase, and D. Douglass, 2010: What do observational datasets say about modeled tropospheric temperature trends since 1979? Remote Sensing, 2, 2148-2169.

2009

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2009: 25 years of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09711.

• Klotzbach, P. J., R. A. Pielke Sr., R. A. Pielke Jr., J. Christy, R. McNider, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D21102.

• Grossmann, I., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2009: A review of North Atlantic modes of natural variability and their driving mechanisms. J. Geophys. Res, 114, D24107.

2008

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2008: Multi-decadal variability in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 21, 3929-3935.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2008: Refinements to Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction from 1 December. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D17109.

2007

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2007: Recent developments in statistical prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Tellus A, 59, 511-518.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2007: Revised prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August. Wea. and Forecasting, 22, 937-949.

• Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, P. J. Klotzbach, and C. W. Landsea, 2007: Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts. WMO Bull., 56, 297-309.

2006

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2006: Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986-2005). Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10805.

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2006: Causes of the unusually destructive 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1325-1333.

2005

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2005: Summary of 2004 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity and verification of seasonal forecasts. Shore and Beach, 73, 20-24.

2004

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2004: Updated 6-11-month prediction of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity. Wea. and Forecasting, 19, 917-934.

2003

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2003: Forecasting September Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Wea. and Forecasting, 18, 1109-1128.