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Philip J. Klotzbach full list of publications

Learn more about Philip J. Klotzbach's current and past research

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2023

• DesRosiers, A., M. M. Bell, P. Klotzbach, M. Fischer, and P. Reasor, 2023: Observed Relationships between Tropical Cyclone Vortex Height, Intensity, and Intensification Rate. Geophys. Res. Letters, in press ,

2022

• Klotzbach, P. J., K. M. Wood, M. M. Bell, E. S. Blake, S. G. Bowen, L.-P. Caron, J. M. Collins, E. J. Gibney, C. J. Schreck III; R. E. Truchelut, 2022: A Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 103, E110-E128 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1

• Jones, J., M. M. Bell, P. J. Klotzbach, and E. A. Barnes, 2022: Wintertime Rossby Wave Breaking Persistence in Extended-range Seasonal Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. Journal of Climate, 35, 2133-2147 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0213.1

• Klotzbach, P.J., K. M. Wood, C. J. Schreck, S. G. Bowen, C. M. Patricola, and M. M. Bell, 2022: Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021. Geophys. Res. Letters, 49, e2021GL095774 , https://doi. org/10.1029/2021GL095774

• Klotzbach, P. J, D. R. Chavas, M. M. Bell, S. G. Bowen, E. J. Gibney, and C. J. Schreck, 2022: Characterizing Continental US Hurricane Risk: Which Intensity Metric Is Best?. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 127, e2022JD037030 , https://doi. org/10.1029/2022JD037030

2021

• Schreck, C. J., Klotzbach, P. J., & Bell, M. M, 2021: Optimal climate normals for North Atlantic hurricane activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL092864 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.06.010

2020

• Klotzbach, P. J., C. J. Schreck III, G. P. Compo, S. G. Bowen, E. J. Gibney, E. C. J. Oliver, M. M. Bell, 2020: The record-breaking 1933 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, published , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0330.1

• Klotzbach, P. J., L.-P. Caron, M. M. Bell, 2020: A statistical/dynamical model for North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL089357 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089357

• Jones, Jhordanne J., Michael M. Bell, Philip J. Klotzbach, 2020: Tropical and Subtropical North Atlantic Vertical Wind Shear and Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity. Journal of Climate, vol 33, issue 13 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0474.1

• Wood, K. M., P. J. Klotzbach, J. M. Collins, R. E. Truchelut, L.-P. Caron, and C. J. Schreck III, 2020: Factors affecting the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season and the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087781 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087781

• Song, J., P. J. Klotzbach, and Y. Duan, 2020: Relationship between spring tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology, vol 16, issue 1 , https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6703

• Song, J., Y. Duan, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2020: Revisiting the relationship between tropical cyclone size and intensity over the western North Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088217 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088217

• Song, J., P. J. Klotzbach, and Y. Duan, 2020: Increasing trend in rapid intensification magnitude of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 084043 , https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9140

• Saunders, M. A., P. J. Klotzbach, A. S. R. Lea, C. J. Schreck, M. M. Bell, 2020: Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season. Earth and Space Science, 7, e2019EA000852 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000852

• Caron, L.-P., F. Massonet, P. J. Klotzbach, T. J. Philp, J. Stroeve, 2020: Making Seasonal Outlooks of Arctic Sea Ice and Atlantic Hurricanes Valuable—Not Just Skillful. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, E36-E42 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0314.1

• Klotzbach, P. J., M. M. Bell, S. G. Bowen, E. J. Gibney, K. R. Knapp, and C. J. Schreck III, 2020: Surface pressure a more skillful predictor of normalized hurricane damage than maximum sustained wind. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, E830–E846 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0062.1

2019

• Zhao, H., S. Chen, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Recent strengthening of the relationship between the western North Pacific monsoon and western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity during the boreal summer. Journal of Climate, 32, 8283-8299 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0016.1

• Zhao, H., J. Zhang, P. J. Klotzbach, and S. Chen, 2019: Recent increased co-variability of tropical cyclogenesis latitude-longitude over the western North Pacific during the extended boreal summer. Journal of Climate, 32, 8167-8179 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0009.1

• Zhao, H., X. Jiang, L. Wu, P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Multi-scale interactions of equatorial waves associated with tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 52, 3023-3038 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4307-z

• Zhao, H., X. Jiang, L. Wu, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Multi-scale interactions of equatorial waves associated with tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 52, 3023-3038 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4307-z

• Zhao, H., S. Chen, G. B. Raga, P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Recent decrease in genesis productivity of tropical cloud clusters over the Western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 52, 5819-5831 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4477-8

• Wood, K., P. J. Klotzbach, J. M. Collins, and C. J. Schreck III, 2019: The record-setting 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 10072-10081 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083657

• Wahiduzzaman, M., E. C. J. Oliver, P. J. Klotzbach, S. J. Wotherspoon, N. J. Holbrook, 2019: A Statistical Seasonal Forecast Model of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones using the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 934-952 , https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5853

• Song, J., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Relationship between the Pacific-North American pattern and the frequency of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 6118-6127 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082925

• Klotzbach, P. J., E. Blake, J. Camp, L.-P. Caron, J. C. L. Chan, N.-Y. Kang, Y. Kuleshov, S.-M. Lee, H. Murakami, M. Saunders, Y. Takaya, F. Vitart, R. Zhan, 2019: Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 8, 134-149 , https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.03

• Klotzbach, P. J., A. Santra, H. H. Hendon, M. M. Bell, C. Lucas, A. G. Marshall, E. C. J. Oliver, 2019: On the Emerging Relationship between the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Scientific Reports, 9, 2981 , https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-40034-6

• Camargo, S. J., J. Camp, R. L. Elsberry, P. A. Gregory, P. J. Klotzbach, C. J. Schreck III, A. H. Sobel, M. J. Ventrice, F. Vitart, Z. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, M. Yamaguchi, and R. Zhan, 2019: Tropical cyclone prediction on sub-seasonal timescales. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 8, 150-165 , https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.04

• Bhardwaj. P., O. Singh, D. R. Pattaniak, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Modulation of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone activity by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Atmospheric Research, 229, 23-38 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.06.010

• Zhao, H., L. Wu, C. Wang, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2019: Consistent late onset of the western North Pacific tropical cyclone season following major El Nino events. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 97, 673-688 , https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-039

2018

• Klotzbach, P. J., S. G. Bowen, R. Pielke Jr., and M. M. Bell, 2018: Continental United States landfall frequency and associated damage: Observations and future risks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 1359-1376.

• Klotzbach, P. J., C. J. Schreck III, J. M. Collins, M. M. Bell, E. S. Blake, and D. R. Roache, 2018: The extremely active 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 3425-3443.

• Song, J., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2018: What has controlled the poleward migration of annual averaged location of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity over the western North Pacific since 1961? Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1148-1156.

• Zhao, H., G. B. Raga, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2018: Impact of the boreal summer quasi-biweekly oscillation on Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Int. Journ. Clim., 38, 1353-1365.

• Wang, S.-Y., L. Zhao, J.-H. Yoon, P. J. Klotzbach, and R. Gillies, 2018: Attribution of climate effects on Hurricane Harvey's extreme rainfall in Texas. Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 054014.

• Patricola, C. M., S. J. Camargo, P. J. Klotzbach, R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2018: The influence of ENSO flavors on western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 31, 5395-5416.

• Song, J., P. J. Klotzbach, J. Ting, and Y. Wang, 2018: The increasing variability of tropical cyclone maximum lifetime intensity. Scientific Reports, 8, 16641.

• Zhao, H., X. Duan, G. B. Raga, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2018: Changes in characteristics of rapidly intensifying western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to climate regime shifts. J. Climate, 31, 8163-8179.

• Weinkle, J., C. Landsea, D. Collins, R. Masulin, R. P. Crompton, P. J. Klotzbach, and R. Pielke Jr., 2018: Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900-2017. Nature Sustainability, 1, 808-813.

• Zhao, H., S. Chen, P. J. Klotzbach, and G. B. Raga, 2018: Impact of the extended boreal summer Madden-Julian Oscillation on western North Pacific tropical cloud cluster genesis productivity. J. Climate, 31, 9175-9191.

2017

• Klotzbach, P. J., J. C. L. Chan, P. J. Fitzpatrick, W. M. Frank, C. W. Landsea, and J. L. McBride, 2017: The science of William M. Gray: His contributions to the knowledge of tropical meteorology and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 2311-2336.

• Saunders, M. A., P. J. Klotzbach, and A. S. R. Lea, 2017: Replicating annual North Atlantic hurricane activity 1878-2012 from environmental variables. JGR-Atmospheres, 122, 6284-6297.

• Ghelani, R. P. S., E. C. J. Oliver, N. J. Holbrook, M. C. Wheeler, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2017: Joint modulation of intraseasonal rainfall in tropical Australia by the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10,754-10,761.

• Richman, M. B., L. M. Leslie, H. A. Ramsay, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2017: Reducing tropical cyclone prediction errors using machine learning approaches. Procedia Computer Science, 114, 314-323.

2016

• Klotzbach, P. J., E. C. J. Oliver, R. Leeper, and C. J. Schreck III, 2016: The relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and southeastern New England snowfall. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 1355-1362.

• Collins, J. M., P. J. Klotzbach, R. N. Maue, D. R. Roache, E. S. Blake, C. H. Paxton and C. A. Mehta, 2016: The record-breaking 2015 hurricane season in the Eastern North Pacific: An analysis of environmental conditions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9217-9224.

• Song, J., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2016: Wind structure discrepancies between two best-track data sets for western North Pacific tropical cyclones. J. Climate, 45, 4533-4551.

2015

• Klotzbach, P. J., and E. C. J. Oliver, 2015: Modulation of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) from 1905-2011. J. Climate, 28, 204-217.

• Klotzbach, P. J., and E. C. J. Oliver, 2015: Variations in global tropical cyclone activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation since the midtwentieth century. Geophys. Res. Lett, 42, 4199-4207.

• Klotzbach, P. J., W. M. Gray, and C. T. Fogarty, 2015: Active Atlantic hurricane era at its end? Nature Geoscience, 8, 737-738.

• Klotzbach, P. J., and C. W. Landsea, 2015: Extremely intense hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 years. J. Climate, 28, 7621-7629.

• Moon, I-J, S-H Kim, P. J. Klotzbach, and J. C. L. Chan, 2015: Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shift of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones. Env. Res. Lett, 10, 104004.

• Walsh, K. J., J. L. McBride, P. J. Klotzbach, S. Balachandran, S. J. Camargo, G. Holland, T. R. Knutson, J. Kossin, T.-C. Lee, and A. Sobel, 2015: Tropical cyclones and climate change. WIREs Climate Change, 7, 65-89.

2014

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2014: The Madden-Julian Oscillation's impacts on worldwide tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 27, 2317-2330.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2014: Prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin accumulated cyclone energy from 1 July. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 115-121.

2013

• Klotzbach, P. J., and E. S. Blake, 2013: North Central Pacific tropical cyclones: Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J. Climate, 26, 7720-7733.

2012

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2012: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Atlantic basin tropical cyclone rapid intensification. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D14104.

2011

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: The influence of El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on Caribbean tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 24, 721-731.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: El Niño - Southern Oscillation's Impact on Atlantic Basin hurricanes and U.S. landfalls. J. Climate, 24, 1252-1263.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: A simplified Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction scheme from 1 August. Geophys. Res. Lett, 38, L16710.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: Forecasting October-November Caribbean hurricane days. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D18117.

2010

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2010: On the Madden-Julian oscillation - Atlantic hurricane relationship. J. Climate, 23, 282-293.

• Christy, J. R., B. Herman, R. Pielke Sr., P. J. Klotzbach, R. T. McNider, J. Hnilo, R. W. Spencer, T. Chase, and D. Douglass, 2010: What do observational datasets say about modeled tropospheric temperature trends since 1979? Remote Sensing, 2, 2148-2169.

2009

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2009: 25 years of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09711.

• Klotzbach, P. J., R. A. Pielke Sr., R. A. Pielke Jr., J. Christy, R. McNider, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D21102.

• Grossmann, I., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2009: A review of North Atlantic modes of natural variability and their driving mechanisms. J. Geophys. Res, 114, D24107.

2008

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2008: Multi-decadal variability in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 21, 3929-3935.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2008: Refinements to Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction from 1 December. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D17109.

2007

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2007: Recent developments in statistical prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Tellus A, 59, 511-518.

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2007: Revised prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August. Wea. and Forecasting, 22, 937-949.

• Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, P. J. Klotzbach, and C. W. Landsea, 2007: Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts. WMO Bull., 56, 297-309.

2006

• Klotzbach, P. J., 2006: Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986-2005). Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10805.

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2006: Causes of the unusually destructive 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1325-1333.

2005

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2005: Summary of 2004 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity and verification of seasonal forecasts. Shore and Beach, 73, 20-24.

2004

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2004: Updated 6-11-month prediction of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity. Wea. and Forecasting, 19, 917-934.

2003

• Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2003: Forecasting September Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Wea. and Forecasting, 18, 1109-1128.