Colorado State University

Forecasting and Research Resources

Resources Created by the CSU Tropical Group

CSU Resources

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CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities

TC impact probability

We are debuting a new methodology for calculating the impacts of tropical cyclones for each state and county/parish along the Gulf and East Coasts, tropical cyclone-prone provinces of Canada, islands in the Caribbean and countries in Central America. We have used NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website and selected all named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of each landmass from 1880-2020.

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CSU Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) index

AMO index

In 2008, Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray published a paper in Journal of Climate discussing a newly-developed Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation index that utilized a combination of two predictors, 1) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the far North Atlantic from 50-60°N, 50-10°W and 2) sea level pressures (SLPs) in the North Atlantic from 0-50°N, 70-10°W. At present, the index is calculated by weighing the SST component as 60% of the index and the SLP component as the remaining 40%.

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CSU Tropical Cyclone Forecast Archive

Forecast Archive

CSU has been issuing seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts since 1984. These forecasts have evolved since their inception and now include sub-seasonal (e.g., two-week) forecasts issued during the peak months of the hurricane season. Find more about our history and past TC forecasts here.

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Lidar Radar Open Software Environment

LROSE

LROSE is a National Science Foundation (NSF) supported project to develop common software for the Lidar, Radar, and Profiler community based on collaborative, open source development. The core package is being jointly developed by CSU and the Earth Observing Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR/EOL).

Real-time statistics calculated from operational best tracks of NHC, CPHC and JTWC

Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Statistics




Global Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2021 (2020/2021 for the Southern Hemisphere)

1981-2010 Climatological Activity Through 04 August in Parentheses
Basin Named Storms Named Storm Days Hurricanes Hurricane Days Major Hurricanes Major Hurricane Days Accumulated Cyclone Energy
North Atlantic 19 (2.2) 59.25 (6.8) 7 (0.7) 19.25 (1.5) 4 (0.1) 7.5 (0.3) 96.0 (8.5)
Northeast Pacific 15 (6.5) 50.75 (26.3) 6 (3.2) 18.25 (10.1) 2 (1.6) 4.75 (2.9) 82.2 (45.3)
Northwest Pacific 13 (8.7) 48.0 (39.5) 4 (5.2) 12.5 (16.6) 1 (2.4) 4.25 (5.7) 68.1 (77.0)
North Indian 2 (1.8) 6.0 (5.7) 2 (0.6) 3.25 (1.4) 1 (0.4) 1.5 (0.6) 13.8 (8.2)
Northern Hemisphere 49 (19.2) 164.0 (78.3) 19 (9.7) 53.2 (29.6) 8 (4.5) 18.0 (9.5) 260.1 (139.0)
South Indian 18 (0.3) 79.0 (0.4) 7 (0.0) 22.5 (0.0) 3 (0.0) 9.0 (0.0) 128.5 (0.2)
South Pacific 11 (0.0) 33.0 (0.0) 4 (0.0) 9.25 (0.0) 2 (0.0) 4.0 (0.0) 55.9 (0.0)
Southern Hemisphere 29 (0.3) 112.0 (0.4) 11 (0.0) 31.8 (0.0) 5 (0.0) 13.0 (0.0) 184.4 (0.2)



Individual Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2021 (2020/2021 for the Southern Hemisphere)


Real-Time North Atlantic Ocean Statistics by Storm for 2021

Storm # Name Active Dates Intensity
(kts)
MSLP
(hPa)
Named
Storm
Days
Hurricane
Days
Major
Hurricane
Days
Accumulated
Cyclone
Energy
1 ANA 5/22 - 5/23 2021 40 1006 1.75 0 0 1.01
2 BILL 6/14 - 6/15 2021 50 998 1.25 0 0 0.98
3 CLAUDETTE 6/19 - 6/22 2021 40 1004 1.75 0 0 1.04
4 DANNY 6/28 - 6/29 2021 35 1011 0.5 0 0 0.24
5 ELSA 7/1 - 7/9 2021 75 991 8.5 1.5 0 9.52
6 FRED 8/11 - 8/17 2021 55 993 3.0 0 0 2.09
7 GRACE 8/14 - 8/21 2021 110 962 6.0 2.0 0.5 9.1
8 HENRI 8/16 - 8/22 2021 65 986 6.25 0.75 0 7.72
9 IDA 8/26 - 8/30 2021 130 929 4.25 2.75 1.0 10.82
10 KATE 8/30 - 8/31 2021 40 1004 1.25 0 0 0.65
11 JULIAN 8/29 - 8/29 2021 50 995 0.5 0 0 0.45
12 LARRY 9/1 - 9/11 2021 110 955 10.5 9.25 4.5 32.82
13 MINDY 9/8 - 9/9 2021 40 1004 0.75 0 0 0.4
14 NICHOLAS 9/12 - 9/14 2021 65 991 2.5 0.25 0 2.36
15 ODETTE 9/17 - 9/18 2021 40 1002 1.0 0 0 0.57
16 PETER 9/19 - 9/21 2021 45 1005 2.5 0 0 1.74
17 ROSE 9/19 - 9/22 2021 45 1004 2.5 0 0 1.38
18 SAM 9/23 - 9/26 2021 130 938 3.75 2.75 1.5 12.7
19 TERESA 9/24 - 9/25 2021 40 1008 0.75 0 0 0.44


North Atlantic Ocean storm statistics were last modified: 09:17 MDT 2022-08-04. Statistics calculated from global repository data graciously provided by NCAR RAL Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project.

Our Curated List of Helpful Resources in the TC Community

External Resources

United States Warning Centers

Model Guidance

  • NCAR Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project – Real-time operational model output whenever tropical cyclones are active anywhere around the globe.
  • Tropical Tidbits – Global forecast model output and real-time analysis tools.
  • SUNY-Albany (Brian Tang) – Operational guidance as well as model trends and preliminary verification for active North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific tropical cyclones.

Satellite Analysis

Blogs

Global Tropical Cyclone Statistics

  • Ryan Maue – Real-time global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) tabulations, along with plots of historical ACE and hurricane frequency.