Resources Created by the CSU Tropical Group

Forecasting and Research Resources

CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities

We are debuting a new methodology for calculating the impacts of tropical cyclones for each state and county/parish along the Gulf and East Coasts, tropical cyclone-prone provinces of Canada, Atlantic-facing states of coastal Mexico, islands in the Caribbean and countries in Central America. We have used NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website and selected all named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of each landmass from 1880-2020. This approach allows for tropical cyclones that may have tracked through an immediately adjacent region to be counted for all regions that were in close proximity to the location of the storm. We then fit the observed frequency of storms within 50 miles of each landmass using a Poisson distribution to calculate the climatological odds of one or more events within 50 miles. Net landfall probability is shown to be linked to the overall Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone activity (NTC). NTC is a combined measure of the year-to-year mean of six indices of hurricane activity, each expressed as a percentage difference from the 1950-2000 climatological average. Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall. Use the drop-down to obtain the climatological odds of storms tracking within 50 miles of each state along the Gulf and East Coasts along with the odds for the current season based on the latest forecast. All of the calculations are also available in a downloadable spreadsheet.

Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities (defined as one or more storms within 50 miles of location)

State County 2022 Forecast Probability of Named Storm impact 2022 Forecast Probability of Hurricane impact 2022 Forecast Probability of Major Hurricane impact Average Probability of Named Storm impact Average Probability of Hurricane impact Average Probability of Major Hurricane impact # Named Storms 1880-2020 # Hurricanes 1880-2020 # Major Hurricanes 1880-2020
Texas 80% 54% 25% 61% 36% 16% 133 64 24
Texas Cameron 38% 21% 8% 24% 13% 5% 39 20 7
Texas Willacy 34% 20% 9% 22% 13% 6% 35 19 8
Texas Kenedy 38% 22% 11% 24% 14% 7% 39 21 10
Texas Kleberg 35% 20% 9% 23% 13% 6% 36 19 8
Texas San Patricio 34% 19% 8% 21% 11% 5% 34 17 7
Texas Nueces 38% 22% 10% 24% 14% 6% 39 21 9
Texas Aransas 30% 18% 8% 19% 11% 5% 30 16 7
Texas Calhoun 39% 21% 8% 25% 13% 5% 41 20 7
Texas Matagorda 48% 28% 12% 32% 17% 8% 54 27 11
Texas Brazoria 46% 26% 8% 30% 16% 5% 51 25 7
Texas Galveston 50% 30% 9% 34% 19% 6% 58 29 8
Texas Chambers 46% 25% 8% 30% 16% 5% 51 24 7
Texas Jefferson 45% 26% 7% 29% 16% 4% 49 25 6
Texas Harris 45% 25% 7% 29% 16% 4% 49 24 6
Texas Refugio 34% 16% 7% 21% 9% 4% 34 14 6
Louisiana 84% 56% 23% 66% 38% 14% 151 68 22
Louisiana Cameron 47% 24% 8% 31% 15% 5% 53 23 7
Louisiana Vermilion 47% 25% 8% 31% 16% 5% 52 24 7
Louisiana Iberia 51% 26% 8% 34% 16% 5% 59 25 7
Louisiana St. Mary 52% 28% 7% 35% 17% 4% 61 27 6
Louisiana Terrebonne 61% 34% 10% 43% 21% 6% 79 34 9
Louisiana Lafourche 58% 33% 9% 40% 21% 6% 71 33 8
Louisiana Jefferson 55% 30% 9% 38% 19% 6% 67 30 8
Louisiana Plaquemines 62% 34% 11% 43% 22% 7% 80 35 10
Louisiana St. Bernard 59% 33% 12% 41% 21% 8% 74 33 11
Louisiana Orleans 48% 24% 7% 32% 15% 4% 54 23 6
Louisiana St. Tammany 50% 25% 7% 34% 16% 4% 58 24 6
Mississippi 72% 43% 12% 53% 28% 8% 106 47 11
Mississippi Hancock 48% 23% 7% 32% 14% 4% 54 22 6
Mississippi Harrison 51% 27% 7% 34% 17% 4% 59 26 6
Mississippi Jackson 48% 25% 9% 32% 16% 6% 55 24 8
Alabama 77% 43% 13% 58% 28% 8% 123 46 12
Alabama Mobile 55% 29% 9% 38% 18% 6% 67 28 8
Alabama Baldwin 60% 29% 10% 41% 18% 6% 75 28 9
Florida 96% 75% 44% 86% 56% 29% 274 115 48
Florida Escambia 56% 28% 11% 39% 17% 7% 69 27 10
Florida Santa Rosa 52% 26% 9% 35% 16% 6% 61 25 8
Florida Okaloosa 53% 25% 9% 36% 16% 6% 62 24 8
Florida Walton 51% 27% 9% 35% 17% 6% 60 26 8
Florida Bay 50% 27% 8% 34% 17% 5% 58 26 7
Florida Gulf 51% 24% 5% 34% 15% 3% 59 23 4
Florida Franklin 51% 22% 5% 35% 14% 3% 60 21 4
Florida Wakulla 48% 20% 2% 32% 12% 1% 54 18 2
Florida Jefferson 49% 16% 1% 33% 9% 1% 56 14 1
Florida Taylor 53% 18% 1% 36% 11% 1% 62 16 1
Florida Dixie 52% 20% 2% 35% 13% 1% 61 19 2
Florida Levy 53% 23% 5% 36% 14% 3% 62 22 4
Florida Citrus 51% 27% 5% 34% 17% 3% 59 26 4
Florida Hernando 50% 27% 7% 34% 17% 4% 58 26 6
Florida Pasco 53% 27% 8% 36% 17% 5% 63 26 7
Florida Pinellas 54% 27% 11% 36% 17% 7% 64 26 10
Florida Hillsborough 53% 28% 11% 36% 17% 7% 63 27 10
Florida Manatee 54% 29% 12% 37% 18% 8% 65 28 11
Florida Sarasota 53% 27% 13% 36% 17% 8% 63 26 12
Florida Charlotte 55% 27% 17% 38% 17% 10% 67 26 15
Florida Lee 58% 29% 19% 40% 18% 11% 71 28 17
Florida Collier 60% 34% 20% 42% 21% 13% 77 34 19
Florida Monroe 71% 45% 27% 52% 30% 17% 103 50 26
Florida Miami-Dade 61% 36% 22% 43% 23% 14% 79 37 21
Florida Broward 60% 35% 18% 42% 23% 11% 77 36 16
Florida Palm Beach 60% 34% 15% 42% 21% 9% 77 34 13
Florida Martin 55% 28% 11% 38% 17% 7% 67 27 10
Florida St. Lucie 53% 24% 9% 36% 15% 6% 63 23 8
Florida Indian River 54% 27% 10% 37% 17% 6% 65 26 9
Florida Brevard 61% 27% 9% 42% 17% 6% 78 26 8
Florida Volusia 56% 27% 4% 39% 17% 2% 69 26 3
Florida Flagler 51% 23% 4% 34% 14% 2% 59 22 3
Florida St. Johns 56% 24% 6% 38% 15% 3% 68 23 5
Florida Duval 55% 23% 6% 38% 14% 3% 67 22 5
Florida Nassau 56% 21% 6% 39% 13% 3% 69 20 5
Georgia 82% 46% 10% 63% 30% 6% 140 51 9
Georgia Camden 58% 20% 6% 40% 12% 3% 72 18 5
Georgia Glynn 54% 17% 6% 36% 10% 3% 64 15 5
Georgia McIntosh 56% 22% 5% 39% 14% 3% 69 21 4
Georgia Liberty 58% 23% 5% 40% 14% 3% 72 22 4
Georgia Bryan 56% 22% 4% 39% 14% 2% 69 21 3
Georgia Chatham 58% 23% 5% 40% 14% 3% 72 22 4
South Carolina 76% 44% 13% 57% 29% 8% 118 48 12
South Carolina Jasper 56% 22% 5% 39% 14% 3% 69 21 4
South Carolina Beaufort 55% 23% 6% 38% 14% 3% 67 22 5
South Carolina Colleton 58% 27% 7% 40% 17% 4% 71 26 6
South Carolina Charleston 62% 33% 8% 43% 21% 5% 80 33 7
South Carolina Georgetown 54% 28% 7% 36% 17% 4% 64 27 6
South Carolina Horry 56% 32% 7% 39% 20% 4% 69 32 6
North Carolina 85% 56% 12% 68% 38% 8% 159 68 11
North Carolina Brunswick 59% 32% 7% 41% 20% 4% 74 32 6
North Carolina New Hanover 58% 32% 7% 40% 20% 4% 71 32 6
North Carolina Pender 60% 34% 7% 42% 22% 4% 76 35 6
North Carolina Onslow 59% 34% 6% 41% 22% 3% 74 35 5
North Carolina Carteret 67% 43% 7% 48% 28% 4% 92 46 6
North Carolina Hyde 69% 42% 6% 50% 27% 3% 97 45 5
North Carolina Dare 68% 42% 7% 49% 27% 4% 94 45 6
North Carolina Currituck 53% 23% 2% 36% 14% 1% 63 22 2
North Carolina Beaufort 55% 23% 1% 37% 14% 1% 66 22 1
North Carolina Bertie 50% 17% 1% 33% 10% 1% 57 15 1
North Carolina Camden 52% 21% 1% 35% 13% 1% 61 20 1
North Carolina Chowan 45% 19% 1% 29% 11% 1% 49 17 1
North Carolina Craven 60% 31% 1% 42% 20% 1% 76 31 1
North Carolina Gates 39% 13% <1% 25% 8% <1% 41 12 0
North Carolina Hertford 43% 12% <1% 28% 8% <1% 46 11 0
North Carolina Pamlico 59% 31% 2% 40% 20% 1% 73 31 2
North Carolina Pasquotank 48% 20% 1% 32% 13% 1% 55 19 1
North Carolina Perquimans 47% 20% 1% 31% 12% 1% 52 18 1
North Carolina Tyrrell 54% 27% 2% 36% 17% 1% 64 26 2
North Carolina Washington 50% 20% 1% 34% 13% 1% 58 19 1
Virginia 65% 31% 2% 46% 20% 1% 86 31 2
Virginia Virginia Beach 45% 20% <1% 30% 12% <1% 50 18 0
Virginia Northampton 41% 15% <1% 27% 9% <1% 44 13 0
Virginia Accomack 41% 15% <1% 27% 9% <1% 44 13 0
Virginia Gloucester 34% 8% <1% 21% 5% <1% 34 7 0
Virginia Lancaster 31% 6% <1% 20% 3% <1% 31 5 0
Virginia Mathews 34% 8% <1% 21% 5% <1% 34 7 0
Virginia Middlesex 33% 6% <1% 21% 3% <1% 33 5 0
Virginia Northumberland 30% 6% <1% 19% 3% <1% 30 5 0
Virginia York 38% 10% <1% 25% 6% <1% 40 9 0
Virginia Hampton 41% 13% <1% 27% 8% <1% 44 12 0
Virginia Newport News 34% 9% <1% 22% 6% <1% 35 8 0
Virginia Norfolk 40% 13% <1% 26% 8% <1% 42 12 0
Virginia Poquoson 37% 10% <1% 24% 6% <1% 38 9 0
Virginia Portsmouth 37% 11% <1% 24% 7% <1% 38 10 0
Virginia Suffolk 39% 12% <1% 25% 8% <1% 41 11 0
Maryland 47% 18% 1% 31% 11% 1% 52 16 1
Maryland Worcester 37% 15% 1% 24% 9% 1% 38 13 1
Maryland Anne Arundel 20% 1% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 1 0
Maryland Baltimore 17% 1% <1% 10% 1% <1% 15 1 0
Maryland Calvert 22% 2% <1% 14% 1% <1% 21 2 0
Maryland Cecil 20% 1% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 1 0
Maryland Dorchester 27% 6% <1% 17% 3% <1% 26 5 0
Maryland Harford 17% 0% <1% 10% 0% <1% 15 0 0
Maryland Kent 20% 0% <1% 12% 0% <1% 18 0 0
Maryland Queen Anne's 20% 1% <1% 13% 1% <1% 19 1 0
Maryland St. Mary's 28% 4% <1% 17% 2% <1% 27 3 0
Maryland Somerset 33% 10% <1% 21% 6% <1% 33 9 0
Maryland Talbot 21% 1% <1% 13% 1% <1% 20 1 0
Maryland Wicomico 29% 7% <1% 18% 4% <1% 28 6 0
Maryland Baltimore City 13% 1% <1% 8% 1% <1% 12 1 0
Delaware 35% 10% 1% 23% 6% 1% 36 9 1
Delaware Sussex 32% 10% 1% 20% 6% 1% 32 9 1
Delaware Kent 24% 5% <1% 15% 3% <1% 23 4 0
Delaware New Castle 20% 1% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 1 0
New Jersey 35% 11% 1% 23% 7% 1% 36 10 1
New Jersey Cape May 29% 11% 1% 18% 7% 1% 28 10 1
New Jersey Atlantic 28% 11% 1% 17% 7% 1% 27 10 1
New Jersey Ocean 29% 11% 1% 18% 7% 1% 28 10 1
New Jersey Monmouth 26% 10% 1% 16% 6% 1% 25 9 1
New Jersey Burlington 26% 9% <1% 16% 6% <1% 25 8 0
New Jersey Essex 21% 5% <1% 13% 3% <1% 20 4 0
New Jersey Hudson 21% 5% <1% 13% 3% <1% 20 4 0
New Jersey Middlesex 22% 6% <1% 14% 3% <1% 21 5 0
New Jersey Salem 20% 2% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 2 0
New Jersey Union 21% 5% <1% 13% 3% <1% 20 4 0
New York 40% 16% 4% 26% 9% 2% 43 14 3
New York Kings 22% 7% <1% 14% 4% <1% 21 6 0
New York Queens 25% 9% 1% 16% 6% 1% 24 8 1
New York Nassau 25% 9% 2% 16% 6% 1% 24 8 2
New York Suffolk 33% 13% 4% 21% 8% 2% 33 12 3
New York Bronx 24% 8% 1% 15% 5% 1% 23 7 1
New York New York 27% 10% 1% 17% 6% 1% 26 9 1
New York Richmond 24% 8% <1% 15% 5% <1% 23 7 0
New York Westchester 25% 8% 1% 16% 5% 1% 24 7 1
Connecticut 34% 12% 2% 22% 8% 1% 35 11 2
Connecticut Fairfield 28% 10% 2% 17% 6% 1% 27 9 2
Connecticut Middlesex 25% 11% 2% 16% 7% 1% 24 10 2
Connecticut New Haven 32% 12% 2% 20% 8% 1% 32 11 2
Connecticut New London 28% 11% 2% 17% 7% 1% 27 10 2
Rhode Island 32% 12% 2% 20% 8% 1% 32 11 2
Rhode Island Washington/South 29% 10% 2% 18% 6% 1% 28 9 2
Rhode Island Newport 26% 11% 2% 16% 7% 1% 25 10 2
Rhode Island Bristol 22% 9% 2% 14% 6% 1% 21 8 2
Rhode Island Kent 24% 9% 1% 15% 6% 1% 23 8 1
Rhode Island Providence 26% 10% 1% 16% 6% 1% 25 9 1
Massachusetts 49% 23% 5% 33% 14% 3% 56 22 4
Massachusetts Dukes 31% 12% 2% 20% 8% 1% 31 11 2
Massachusetts Norfolk 24% 8% 1% 15% 5% 1% 23 7 1
Massachusetts Nantucket 30% 16% 2% 19% 9% 1% 30 14 2
Massachusetts Barnstable 27% 15% 2% 17% 9% 1% 26 13 2
Massachusetts Plymouth 26% 11% 2% 16% 7% 1% 25 10 2
Massachusetts Suffolk 23% 8% 1% 14% 5% 1% 22 7 1
Massachusetts Essex 23% 8% 1% 14% 5% 1% 22 7 1
New Hampshire 29% 9% 2% 18% 6% 1% 28 8 2
New Hampshire Rockingham 23% 6% 1% 14% 3% 1% 22 5 1
Maine 34% 11% 2% 21% 7% 1% 34 10 2
Maine York 23% 6% 1% 14% 3% 1% 22 5 1
Maine Cumberland 20% 4% <1% 12% 2% <1% 18 3 0
Maine Sagadahoc 19% 4% <1% 11% 2% <1% 17 3 0
Maine Lincoln 18% 4% <1% 11% 2% <1% 16 3 0
Maine Knox 21% 7% 1% 13% 4% 1% 20 6 1
Maine Hancock 18% 7% 1% 11% 4% 1% 16 6 1
Maine Washington 20% 7% 1% 12% 4% 1% 18 6 1
Maine Waldo 17% 4% <1% 10% 2% <1% 15 3 0
New Brunswick 50% 12% 1% 33% 8% 1% 57 11 1
Nova Scotia 60% 41% 1% 42% 27% 1% 77 44 1
Prince Edward Island 16% 10% <1% 9% 6% <1% 14 9 0
Newfoundland and Labrador 40% 25% 1% 26% 16% 1% 43 24 1
Quintana Roo 81% 50% 24% 63% 33% 15% 139 57 23
Yucatan 72% 40% 20% 53% 26% 12% 107 43 18
Campeche 66% 33% 8% 47% 21% 5% 89 33 7
Tabasco 38% 9% <1% 25% 6% <1% 40 8 0
Veracruz 63% 32% 5% 44% 20% 3% 83 32 4
Tamaulipas 66% 40% 16% 47% 26% 9% 89 43 14
Anguilla 52% 29% 13% 35% 18% 8% 61 28 12
Antigua and Barbuda 43% 24% 11% 28% 15% 7% 46 23 10
Aruba 17% 8% <1% 10% 5% <1% 15 7 0
The Bahamas 94% 72% 45% 81% 53% 30% 237 106 50
Barbados 43% 10% 2% 28% 6% 1% 47 9 2
Belize 60% 30% 10% 42% 19% 6% 76 30 9
Bermuda 58% 40% 19% 40% 26% 11% 71 42 17
Bonaire 12% 6% <1% 8% 3% <1% 11 5 0
Cabo Verde 26% 5% <1% 16% 3% <1% 25 4 0
Cayman Islands 58% 36% 12% 40% 23% 8% 71 37 11
Costa Rica 9% 4% 1% 6% 2% 1% 8 3 1
Cuba 91% 71% 39% 76% 51% 25% 204 102 41
Curacao 15% 7% <1% 9% 4% <1% 13 6 0
Dominica 50% 22% 11% 33% 14% 7% 57 21 10
Dominican Republic 77% 52% 27% 58% 35% 17% 123 61 26
Grenada 43% 11% 1% 28% 7% 1% 46 10 1
Guadeloupe 51% 29% 11% 34% 18% 7% 59 28 10
Guatemala 56% 24% 5% 38% 15% 3% 68 23 4
Haiti 63% 40% 16% 44% 26% 9% 82 42 14
Honduras 83% 43% 18% 64% 28% 11% 146 46 16
Jamaica 65% 35% 13% 46% 23% 8% 88 36 12
Martinique 51% 19% 7% 34% 11% 4% 59 17 6
Mexico 91% 63% 30% 76% 44% 19% 204 83 29
Montserrat 40% 23% 9% 26% 14% 6% 43 22 8
Nicaragua 53% 26% 12% 36% 16% 8% 62 25 11
Panama 2% 1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 2 1 0
Puerto Rico 59% 37% 16% 40% 24% 9% 73 38 14
Saba 38% 24% 10% 24% 15% 6% 39 23 9
Saint Kitts and Nevis 51% 32% 15% 34% 20% 9% 59 32 13
Saint Lucia 59% 17% 6% 40% 10% 3% 73 15 5
Saint Martin 40% 24% 12% 26% 15% 8% 43 23 11
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 59% 15% 2% 41% 9% 1% 74 13 2
Sint Eustatius 38% 24% 12% 25% 15% 8% 40 23 11
Sint Maarten 40% 24% 12% 26% 15% 8% 43 23 11
Trinidad and Tobago 12% 4% <1% 8% 2% <1% 11 3 0
Turks and Caicos 59% 32% 18% 40% 20% 11% 73 32 16
UK Virgin Islands 56% 34% 17% 39% 22% 10% 69 35 15
US Virgin Islands 50% 30% 13% 33% 19% 8% 57 30 12