Resources Created by the CSU Tropical Group

Forecasting and Research Resources

CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities

We are debuting a new methodology for calculating the impacts of tropical cyclones for each state and county/parish along the Gulf and East Coasts, tropical cyclone-prone provinces of Canada, Atlantic-facing states of coastal Mexico, islands in the Caribbean and countries in Central America. We have used NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website and selected all named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of each landmass from 1880-2020. This approach allows for tropical cyclones that may have tracked through an immediately adjacent region to be counted for all regions that were in close proximity to the location of the storm. We then fit the observed frequency of storms within 50 miles of each landmass using a Poisson distribution to calculate the climatological odds of one or more events within 50 miles. Net landfall probability is shown to be linked to the overall Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone activity (NTC). NTC is a combined measure of the year-to-year mean of six indices of hurricane activity, each expressed as a percentage difference from the 1950-2000 climatological average. Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall. Use the drop-down to obtain the climatological odds of storms tracking within 50 miles of each state along the Gulf and East Coasts along with the odds for the current season based on the latest forecast. All of the calculations are also available in a downloadable spreadsheet.

Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities (defined as one or more storms within 50 miles of location)

State County 2022 Forecast Probability of Named Storm impact 2022 Forecast Probability of Hurricane impact 2022 Forecast Probability of Major Hurricane impact Average Probability of Named Storm impact Average Probability of Hurricane impact Average Probability of Major Hurricane impact # Named Storms 1880-2020 # Hurricanes 1880-2020 # Major Hurricanes 1880-2020
Alabama 74% 39% 12% 58% 28% 8% 123 46 12
Alabama Baldwin 56% 26% 9% 41% 18% 6% 75 28 9
Alabama Mobile 52% 26% 8% 38% 18% 6% 67 28 8
Connecticut 32% 11% 2% 22% 8% 1% 35 11 2
Connecticut Fairfield 26% 9% 2% 17% 6% 1% 27 9 2
Connecticut Middlesex 23% 10% 2% 16% 7% 1% 24 10 2
Connecticut New Haven 29% 11% 2% 20% 8% 1% 32 11 2
Connecticut New London 26% 10% 2% 17% 7% 1% 27 10 2
Delaware 33% 9% 1% 23% 6% 1% 36 9 1
Delaware Kent 22% 4% <1% 15% 3% <1% 23 4 0
Delaware New Castle 18% 1% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 1 0
Delaware Sussex 29% 9% 1% 20% 6% 1% 32 9 1
Florida 95% 72% 41% 86% 56% 29% 274 115 48
Florida Bay 47% 25% 7% 34% 17% 5% 58 26 7
Florida Brevard 57% 25% 8% 42% 17% 6% 78 26 8
Florida Broward 57% 33% 16% 42% 23% 11% 77 36 16
Florida Charlotte 52% 25% 15% 38% 17% 10% 67 26 15
Florida Citrus 48% 25% 4% 34% 17% 3% 59 26 4
Florida Collier 57% 31% 19% 42% 21% 13% 77 34 19
Florida Dixie 49% 19% 2% 35% 13% 1% 61 19 2
Florida Duval 52% 21% 5% 38% 14% 3% 67 22 5
Florida Escambia 53% 26% 10% 39% 17% 7% 69 27 10
Florida Flagler 48% 21% 3% 34% 14% 2% 59 22 3
Florida Franklin 48% 20% 4% 35% 14% 3% 60 21 4
Florida Gulf 48% 22% 4% 34% 15% 3% 59 23 4
Florida Hernando 47% 25% 6% 34% 17% 4% 58 26 6
Florida Hillsborough 50% 26% 10% 36% 17% 7% 63 27 10
Florida Indian River 51% 25% 9% 37% 17% 6% 65 26 9
Florida Jefferson 46% 14% 1% 33% 9% 1% 56 14 1
Florida Lee 54% 26% 17% 40% 18% 11% 71 28 17
Florida Levy 49% 21% 4% 36% 14% 3% 62 22 4
Florida Manatee 51% 26% 11% 37% 18% 8% 65 28 11
Florida Martin 52% 26% 10% 38% 17% 7% 67 27 10
Florida Miami-Dade 58% 33% 20% 43% 23% 14% 79 37 21
Florida Monroe 68% 42% 25% 52% 30% 17% 103 50 26
Florida Nassau 53% 20% 5% 39% 13% 3% 69 20 5
Florida Okaloosa 49% 23% 8% 36% 16% 6% 62 24 8
Florida Palm Beach 57% 31% 13% 42% 21% 9% 77 34 13
Florida Pasco 50% 25% 7% 36% 17% 5% 63 26 7
Florida Pinellas 50% 25% 10% 36% 17% 7% 64 26 10
Florida Santa Rosa 49% 24% 8% 35% 16% 6% 61 25 8
Florida Sarasota 50% 25% 12% 36% 17% 8% 63 26 12
Florida St. Johns 52% 22% 5% 38% 15% 3% 68 23 5
Florida St. Lucie 50% 22% 8% 36% 15% 6% 63 23 8
Florida Taylor 49% 16% 1% 36% 11% 1% 62 16 1
Florida Volusia 53% 25% 3% 39% 17% 2% 69 26 3
Florida Wakulla 45% 18% 2% 32% 12% 1% 54 18 2
Florida Walton 48% 25% 8% 35% 17% 6% 60 26 8
Georgia 78% 43% 9% 63% 30% 6% 140 51 9
Georgia Bryan 53% 20% 3% 39% 14% 2% 69 21 3
Georgia Camden 54% 18% 5% 40% 12% 3% 72 18 5
Georgia Chatham 54% 21% 4% 40% 14% 3% 72 22 4
Georgia Glynn 50% 15% 5% 36% 10% 3% 64 15 5
Georgia Liberty 54% 21% 4% 40% 14% 3% 72 22 4
Georgia McIntosh 53% 20% 4% 39% 14% 3% 69 21 4
Louisiana 81% 52% 21% 66% 38% 14% 151 68 22
Louisiana Cameron 44% 22% 7% 31% 15% 5% 53 23 7
Louisiana Iberia 48% 24% 7% 34% 16% 5% 59 25 7
Louisiana Jefferson 52% 28% 8% 38% 19% 6% 67 30 8
Louisiana Lafourche 54% 30% 8% 40% 21% 6% 71 33 8
Louisiana Orleans 45% 22% 6% 32% 15% 4% 54 23 6
Louisiana Plaquemines 58% 32% 10% 43% 22% 7% 80 35 10
Louisiana St. Bernard 55% 30% 11% 41% 21% 8% 74 33 11
Louisiana St. Mary 49% 26% 6% 35% 17% 4% 61 27 6
Louisiana St. Tammany 47% 23% 6% 34% 16% 4% 58 24 6
Louisiana Terrebonne 58% 31% 9% 43% 21% 6% 79 34 9
Louisiana Vermilion 43% 23% 7% 31% 16% 5% 52 24 7
Maine 31% 10% 2% 21% 7% 1% 34 10 2
Maine Cumberland 18% 3% <1% 12% 2% <1% 18 3 0
Maine Hancock 16% 6% 1% 11% 4% 1% 16 6 1
Maine Knox 20% 6% 1% 13% 4% 1% 20 6 1
Maine Lincoln 16% 3% <1% 11% 2% <1% 16 3 0
Maine Sagadahoc 17% 3% <1% 11% 2% <1% 17 3 0
Maine Waldo 15% 3% <1% 10% 2% <1% 15 3 0
Maine Washington 18% 6% 1% 12% 4% 1% 18 6 1
Maine York 21% 5% 1% 14% 3% 1% 22 5 1
Maryland 43% 16% 1% 31% 11% 1% 52 16 1
Maryland Anne Arundel 18% 1% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 1 0
Maryland Baltimore 15% 1% <1% 10% 1% <1% 15 1 0
Maryland Baltimore City 12% 1% <1% 8% 1% <1% 12 1 0
Maryland Calvert 20% 2% <1% 14% 1% <1% 21 2 0
Maryland Cecil 18% 1% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 1 0
Maryland Dorchester 25% 5% <1% 17% 3% <1% 26 5 0
Maryland Harford 15% 0% <1% 10% 0% <1% 15 0 0
Maryland Kent 18% 0% <1% 12% 0% <1% 18 0 0
Maryland Queen Anne's 19% 1% <1% 13% 1% <1% 19 1 0
Maryland Somerset 30% 9% <1% 21% 6% <1% 33 9 0
Maryland St. Mary's 26% 3% <1% 17% 2% <1% 27 3 0
Maryland Talbot 20% 1% <1% 13% 1% <1% 20 1 0
Maryland Wicomico 26% 6% <1% 18% 4% <1% 28 6 0
Maryland Worcester 34% 13% 1% 24% 9% 1% 38 13 1
Massachusetts 46% 21% 4% 33% 14% 3% 56 22 4
Massachusetts Barnstable 25% 13% 2% 17% 9% 1% 26 13 2
Massachusetts Dukes 29% 11% 2% 20% 8% 1% 31 11 2
Massachusetts Essex 21% 7% 1% 14% 5% 1% 22 7 1
Massachusetts Nantucket 28% 14% 2% 19% 9% 1% 30 14 2
Massachusetts Norfolk 22% 7% 1% 15% 5% 1% 23 7 1
Massachusetts Plymouth 24% 10% 2% 16% 7% 1% 25 10 2
Massachusetts Suffolk 21% 7% 1% 14% 5% 1% 22 7 1
Mississippi 69% 40% 11% 53% 28% 8% 106 47 11
Mississippi Hancock 45% 21% 6% 32% 14% 4% 54 22 6
Mississippi Harrison 48% 25% 6% 34% 17% 4% 59 26 6
Mississippi Jackson 45% 23% 8% 32% 16% 6% 55 24 8
New Hampshire 26% 8% 2% 18% 6% 1% 28 8 2
New Hampshire Rockingham 21% 5% 1% 14% 3% 1% 22 5 1
New Jersey 33% 10% 1% 23% 7% 1% 36 10 1
New Jersey Atlantic 26% 10% 1% 17% 7% 1% 27 10 1
New Jersey Burlington 24% 8% <1% 16% 6% <1% 25 8 0
New Jersey Cape May 26% 10% 1% 18% 7% 1% 28 10 1
New Jersey Essex 20% 4% <1% 13% 3% <1% 20 4 0
New Jersey Hudson 20% 4% <1% 13% 3% <1% 20 4 0
New Jersey Middlesex 20% 5% <1% 14% 3% <1% 21 5 0
New Jersey Monmouth 24% 9% 1% 16% 6% 1% 25 9 1
New Jersey Ocean 26% 10% 1% 18% 7% 1% 28 10 1
New Jersey Salem 18% 2% <1% 12% 1% <1% 18 2 0
New Jersey Union 20% 4% <1% 13% 3% <1% 20 4 0
New York 37% 14% 3% 26% 9% 2% 43 14 3
New York Bronx 22% 7% 1% 15% 5% 1% 23 7 1
New York Kings 20% 6% <1% 14% 4% <1% 21 6 0
New York Nassau 23% 8% 2% 16% 6% 1% 24 8 2
New York New York 25% 9% 1% 17% 6% 1% 26 9 1
New York Queens 23% 8% 1% 16% 6% 1% 24 8 1
New York Richmond 22% 7% <1% 15% 5% <1% 23 7 0
New York Suffolk 30% 12% 3% 21% 8% 2% 33 12 3
New York Westchester 23% 7% 1% 16% 5% 1% 24 7 1
North Carolina 82% 52% 11% 68% 38% 8% 159 68 11
North Carolina Beaufort 51% 21% 1% 37% 14% 1% 66 22 1
North Carolina Bertie 46% 15% 1% 33% 10% 1% 57 15 1
North Carolina Brunswick 55% 29% 6% 41% 20% 4% 74 32 6
North Carolina Camden 49% 20% 1% 35% 13% 1% 61 20 1
North Carolina Carteret 63% 39% 6% 48% 28% 4% 92 46 6
North Carolina Chowan 41% 17% 1% 29% 11% 1% 49 17 1
North Carolina Craven 56% 29% 1% 42% 20% 1% 76 31 1
North Carolina Currituck 50% 21% 2% 36% 14% 1% 63 22 2
North Carolina Dare 64% 39% 6% 49% 27% 4% 94 45 6
North Carolina Gates 36% 12% <1% 25% 8% <1% 41 12 0
North Carolina Hertford 39% 11% <1% 28% 8% <1% 46 11 0
North Carolina Hyde 65% 39% 5% 50% 27% 3% 97 45 5
North Carolina New Hanover 54% 29% 6% 40% 20% 4% 71 32 6
North Carolina Onslow 55% 32% 5% 41% 22% 3% 74 35 5
North Carolina Pamlico 55% 29% 2% 40% 20% 1% 73 31 2
North Carolina Pasquotank 45% 19% 1% 32% 13% 1% 55 19 1
North Carolina Pender 56% 32% 6% 42% 22% 4% 76 35 6
North Carolina Perquimans 43% 18% 1% 31% 12% 1% 52 18 1
North Carolina Tyrrell 50% 25% 2% 36% 17% 1% 64 26 2
North Carolina Washington 47% 19% 1% 34% 13% 1% 58 19 1
Rhode Island 29% 11% 2% 20% 8% 1% 32 11 2
Rhode Island Bristol 20% 8% 2% 14% 6% 1% 21 8 2
Rhode Island Kent 22% 8% 1% 15% 6% 1% 23 8 1
Rhode Island Newport 24% 10% 2% 16% 7% 1% 25 10 2
Rhode Island Providence 24% 9% 1% 16% 6% 1% 25 9 1
Rhode Island Washington/South 26% 9% 2% 18% 6% 1% 28 9 2
South Carolina 72% 41% 12% 57% 29% 8% 118 48 12
South Carolina Beaufort 52% 21% 5% 38% 14% 3% 67 22 5
South Carolina Charleston 58% 30% 7% 43% 21% 5% 80 33 7
South Carolina Colleton 54% 25% 6% 40% 17% 4% 71 26 6
South Carolina Georgetown 50% 26% 6% 36% 17% 4% 64 27 6
South Carolina Horry 53% 29% 6% 39% 20% 4% 69 32 6
South Carolina Jasper 53% 20% 4% 39% 14% 3% 69 21 4
Texas 77% 50% 23% 61% 36% 16% 133 64 24
Texas Aransas 28% 16% 7% 19% 11% 5% 30 16 7
Texas Brazoria 43% 24% 7% 30% 16% 5% 51 25 7
Texas Calhoun 36% 20% 7% 25% 13% 5% 41 20 7
Texas Cameron 35% 20% 7% 24% 13% 5% 39 20 7
Texas Chambers 43% 23% 7% 30% 16% 5% 51 24 7
Texas Galveston 47% 27% 8% 34% 19% 6% 58 29 8
Texas Harris 41% 23% 6% 29% 16% 4% 49 24 6
Texas Jefferson 41% 24% 6% 29% 16% 4% 49 25 6
Texas Kenedy 35% 20% 10% 24% 14% 7% 39 21 10
Texas Kleberg 33% 19% 8% 23% 13% 6% 36 19 8
Texas Matagorda 45% 26% 11% 32% 17% 8% 54 27 11
Texas Nueces 35% 20% 9% 24% 14% 6% 39 21 9
Texas Refugio 31% 14% 6% 21% 9% 4% 34 14 6
Texas San Patricio 31% 17% 7% 21% 11% 5% 34 17 7
Texas Willacy 32% 19% 8% 22% 13% 6% 35 19 8
Virginia 61% 29% 2% 46% 20% 1% 86 31 2
Virginia Accomack 38% 13% <1% 27% 9% <1% 44 13 0
Virginia Gloucester 31% 7% <1% 21% 5% <1% 34 7 0
Virginia Hampton 38% 12% <1% 27% 8% <1% 44 12 0
Virginia Lancaster 29% 5% <1% 20% 3% <1% 31 5 0
Virginia Mathews 31% 7% <1% 21% 5% <1% 34 7 0
Virginia Middlesex 30% 5% <1% 21% 3% <1% 33 5 0
Virginia Newport News 32% 8% <1% 22% 6% <1% 35 8 0
Virginia Norfolk 37% 12% <1% 26% 8% <1% 42 12 0
Virginia Northampton 38% 13% <1% 27% 9% <1% 44 13 0
Virginia Northumberland 28% 5% <1% 19% 3% <1% 30 5 0
Virginia Poquoson 34% 9% <1% 24% 6% <1% 38 9 0
Virginia Portsmouth 34% 10% <1% 24% 7% <1% 38 10 0
Virginia Suffolk 36% 11% <1% 25% 8% <1% 41 11 0
Virginia Virginia Beach 42% 18% <1% 30% 12% <1% 50 18 0
Virginia York 35% 9% <1% 25% 6% <1% 40 9 0
Canada 66% 41% 2% 51% 29% 1% 100 48 2
New Brunswick 46% 11% 1% 33% 8% 1% 57 11 1
Newfoundland and Labrador 37% 23% 1% 26% 16% 1% 43 24 1
Nova Scotia 57% 38% 1% 42% 27% 1% 77 44 1
Prince Edward Island 14% 9% <1% 9% 6% <1% 14 9 0
Mexico 89% 60% 27% 76% 44% 19% 204 83 29
Campeche 62% 30% 7% 47% 21% 5% 89 33 7
Quintana Roo 78% 46% 22% 63% 33% 15% 139 57 23
Tabasco 35% 8% <1% 25% 6% <1% 40 8 0
Tamaulipas 62% 37% 14% 47% 26% 9% 89 43 14
Veracruz 60% 29% 4% 44% 20% 3% 83 32 4
Yucatan 69% 37% 18% 53% 26% 12% 107 43 18
Anguilla 49% 26% 12% 35% 18% 8% 61 28 12
Antigua and Barbuda 39% 22% 10% 28% 15% 7% 46 23 10
Aruba 15% 7% <1% 10% 5% <1% 15 7 0
Bahamas, The 92% 69% 42% 81% 53% 30% 237 106 50
Barbados 40% 9% 2% 28% 6% 1% 47 9 2
Belize 56% 28% 9% 42% 19% 6% 76 30 9
Bermuda 54% 37% 17% 40% 26% 11% 71 42 17
Bonaire 11% 5% <1% 8% 3% <1% 11 5 0
Cabo Verde 24% 4% <1% 16% 3% <1% 25 4 0
Cayman Islands 54% 33% 11% 40% 23% 8% 71 37 11
Costa Rica 8% 3% 1% 6% 2% 1% 8 3 1
Cuba 89% 67% 36% 76% 51% 25% 204 102 41
Curacao 13% 6% <1% 9% 4% <1% 13 6 0
Dominica 46% 20% 10% 33% 14% 7% 57 21 10
Dominican Republic 74% 49% 25% 58% 35% 17% 123 61 26
Grenada 39% 10% 1% 28% 7% 1% 46 10 1
Guadeloupe 48% 26% 10% 34% 18% 7% 59 28 10
Guatemala 52% 22% 4% 38% 15% 3% 68 23 4
Haiti 59% 37% 14% 44% 26% 9% 82 42 14
Honduras 80% 39% 16% 64% 28% 11% 146 46 16
Jamaica 62% 33% 12% 46% 23% 8% 88 36 12
Martinique 48% 17% 6% 34% 11% 4% 59 17 6
Montserrat 37% 21% 8% 26% 14% 6% 43 22 8
Nicaragua 49% 24% 11% 36% 16% 8% 62 25 11
Panama 2% 1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 2 1 0
Puerto Rico 55% 34% 14% 40% 24% 9% 73 38 14
Saba 35% 22% 9% 24% 15% 6% 39 23 9
Saint Kitts and Nevis 48% 29% 13% 34% 20% 9% 59 32 13
Saint Lucia 55% 15% 5% 40% 10% 3% 73 15 5
Saint Martin 37% 22% 11% 26% 15% 8% 43 23 11
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 55% 13% 2% 41% 9% 1% 74 13 2
Sint Eustatius 35% 22% 11% 25% 15% 8% 40 23 11
Sint Maarten 37% 22% 11% 26% 15% 8% 43 23 11
Trinidad and Tobago 11% 3% <1% 8% 2% <1% 11 3 0
Turks and Caicos 55% 29% 16% 40% 20% 11% 73 32 16
UK Virgin Islands 53% 32% 15% 39% 22% 10% 69 35 15
US Virgin Islands 46% 28% 12% 33% 19% 8% 57 30 12