CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities
We are using a new methodology for calculating the impacts of tropical cyclones for each state and county/parish along the Gulf and East Coasts, tropical cyclone-prone provinces of Canada, Atlantic-facing states of coastal Mexico, islands in the Caribbean and countries in Central America. We have used NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website and selected all named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of each landmass from 1880-2020. This approach allows for tropical cyclones that may have tracked through an immediately adjacent region to be counted for all regions that were in close proximity to the location of the storm. We then fit the observed frequency of storms within 50 miles of each landmass using a Poisson distribution to calculate the climatological odds of one or more events within 50 miles. Net landfall probability is shown to be linked to the overall Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence. Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall. Use the drop-down to obtain the climatological odds of storms tracking within 50 miles of each state along the Gulf and East Coasts along with the odds for the current season based on the latest forecast. All of the calculations are also available in a downloadable spreadsheet.
Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities (defined as one or more storms within 50 miles of location)
| State | County | 2023 Forecast Probability of Named Storm impact | 2023 Forecast Probability of Hurricane impact | 2023 Forecast Probability of Major Hurricane impact | Average Probability of Named Storm impact | Average Probability of Hurricane impact | Average Probability of Major Hurricane impact | # Named Storms 1880-2020 | # Hurricanes 1880-2020 | # Major Hurricanes 1880-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 58% | 28% | 8% | 58% | 28% | 8% | 123 | 46 | 12 | |
| Alabama | Baldwin | 41% | 18% | 6% | 41% | 18% | 6% | 75 | 28 | 9 |
| Alabama | Mobile | 38% | 18% | 6% | 38% | 18% | 6% | 67 | 28 | 8 |
| Connecticut | 22% | 8% | 1% | 22% | 8% | 1% | 35 | 11 | 2 | |
| Connecticut | Fairfield | 17% | 6% | 1% | 17% | 6% | 1% | 27 | 9 | 2 |
| Connecticut | Middlesex | 16% | 7% | 1% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 24 | 10 | 2 |
| Connecticut | New Haven | 20% | 8% | 1% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 32 | 11 | 2 |
| Connecticut | New London | 17% | 7% | 1% | 17% | 7% | 1% | 27 | 10 | 2 |
| Delaware | 23% | 6% | 1% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 36 | 9 | 1 | |
| Delaware | Kent | 15% | 3% | <1% | 15% | 3% | <1% | 23 | 4 | 0 |
| Delaware | New Castle | 12% | 1% | <1% | 12% | 1% | <1% | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| Delaware | Sussex | 20% | 6% | 1% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 32 | 9 | 1 |
| Florida | 86% | 56% | 29% | 86% | 56% | 29% | 274 | 115 | 48 | |
| Florida | Bay | 34% | 17% | 5% | 34% | 17% | 5% | 58 | 26 | 7 |
| Florida | Brevard | 42% | 17% | 6% | 42% | 17% | 6% | 78 | 26 | 8 |
| Florida | Broward | 42% | 23% | 11% | 42% | 23% | 11% | 77 | 36 | 16 |
| Florida | Charlotte | 38% | 17% | 10% | 38% | 17% | 10% | 67 | 26 | 15 |
| Florida | Citrus | 34% | 17% | 3% | 34% | 17% | 3% | 59 | 26 | 4 |
| Florida | Collier | 42% | 21% | 13% | 42% | 21% | 13% | 77 | 34 | 19 |
| Florida | Dixie | 35% | 13% | 1% | 35% | 13% | 1% | 61 | 19 | 2 |
| Florida | Duval | 38% | 14% | 3% | 38% | 14% | 3% | 67 | 22 | 5 |
| Florida | Escambia | 39% | 17% | 7% | 39% | 17% | 7% | 69 | 27 | 10 |
| Florida | Flagler | 34% | 14% | 2% | 34% | 14% | 2% | 59 | 22 | 3 |
| Florida | Franklin | 35% | 14% | 3% | 35% | 14% | 3% | 60 | 21 | 4 |
| Florida | Gulf | 34% | 15% | 3% | 34% | 15% | 3% | 59 | 23 | 4 |
| Florida | Hernando | 34% | 17% | 4% | 34% | 17% | 4% | 58 | 26 | 6 |
| Florida | Hillsborough | 36% | 17% | 7% | 36% | 17% | 7% | 63 | 27 | 10 |
| Florida | Indian River | 37% | 17% | 6% | 37% | 17% | 6% | 65 | 26 | 9 |
| Florida | Jefferson | 33% | 9% | 1% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 56 | 14 | 1 |
| Florida | Lee | 40% | 18% | 11% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 71 | 28 | 17 |
| Florida | Levy | 36% | 14% | 3% | 36% | 14% | 3% | 62 | 22 | 4 |
| Florida | Manatee | 37% | 18% | 8% | 37% | 18% | 8% | 65 | 28 | 11 |
| Florida | Martin | 38% | 17% | 7% | 38% | 17% | 7% | 67 | 27 | 10 |
| Florida | Miami-Dade | 43% | 23% | 14% | 43% | 23% | 14% | 79 | 37 | 21 |
| Florida | Monroe | 52% | 30% | 17% | 52% | 30% | 17% | 103 | 50 | 26 |
| Florida | Nassau | 39% | 13% | 3% | 39% | 13% | 3% | 69 | 20 | 5 |
| Florida | Okaloosa | 36% | 16% | 6% | 36% | 16% | 6% | 62 | 24 | 8 |
| Florida | Palm Beach | 42% | 21% | 9% | 42% | 21% | 9% | 77 | 34 | 13 |
| Florida | Pasco | 36% | 17% | 5% | 36% | 17% | 5% | 63 | 26 | 7 |
| Florida | Pinellas | 36% | 17% | 7% | 36% | 17% | 7% | 64 | 26 | 10 |
| Florida | Santa Rosa | 35% | 16% | 6% | 35% | 16% | 6% | 61 | 25 | 8 |
| Florida | Sarasota | 36% | 17% | 8% | 36% | 17% | 8% | 63 | 26 | 12 |
| Florida | St. Johns | 38% | 15% | 3% | 38% | 15% | 3% | 68 | 23 | 5 |
| Florida | St. Lucie | 36% | 15% | 6% | 36% | 15% | 6% | 63 | 23 | 8 |
| Florida | Taylor | 36% | 11% | 1% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 62 | 16 | 1 |
| Florida | Volusia | 39% | 17% | 2% | 39% | 17% | 2% | 69 | 26 | 3 |
| Florida | Wakulla | 32% | 12% | 1% | 32% | 12% | 1% | 54 | 18 | 2 |
| Florida | Walton | 35% | 17% | 6% | 35% | 17% | 6% | 60 | 26 | 8 |
| Georgia | 63% | 30% | 6% | 63% | 30% | 6% | 140 | 51 | 9 | |
| Georgia | Bryan | 39% | 14% | 2% | 39% | 14% | 2% | 69 | 21 | 3 |
| Georgia | Camden | 40% | 12% | 3% | 40% | 12% | 3% | 72 | 18 | 5 |
| Georgia | Chatham | 40% | 14% | 3% | 40% | 14% | 3% | 72 | 22 | 4 |
| Georgia | Glynn | 36% | 10% | 3% | 36% | 10% | 3% | 64 | 15 | 5 |
| Georgia | Liberty | 40% | 14% | 3% | 40% | 14% | 3% | 72 | 22 | 4 |
| Georgia | McIntosh | 39% | 14% | 3% | 39% | 14% | 3% | 69 | 21 | 4 |
| Louisiana | 66% | 38% | 14% | 66% | 38% | 14% | 151 | 68 | 22 | |
| Louisiana | Cameron | 31% | 15% | 5% | 31% | 15% | 5% | 53 | 23 | 7 |
| Louisiana | Iberia | 34% | 16% | 5% | 34% | 16% | 5% | 59 | 25 | 7 |
| Louisiana | Jefferson | 38% | 19% | 6% | 38% | 19% | 6% | 67 | 30 | 8 |
| Louisiana | Lafourche | 40% | 21% | 6% | 40% | 21% | 6% | 71 | 33 | 8 |
| Louisiana | Orleans | 32% | 15% | 4% | 32% | 15% | 4% | 54 | 23 | 6 |
| Louisiana | Plaquemines | 43% | 22% | 7% | 43% | 22% | 7% | 80 | 35 | 10 |
| Louisiana | St. Bernard | 41% | 21% | 8% | 41% | 21% | 8% | 74 | 33 | 11 |
| Louisiana | St. Mary | 35% | 17% | 4% | 35% | 17% | 4% | 61 | 27 | 6 |
| Louisiana | St. Tammany | 34% | 16% | 4% | 34% | 16% | 4% | 58 | 24 | 6 |
| Louisiana | Terrebonne | 43% | 21% | 6% | 43% | 21% | 6% | 79 | 34 | 9 |
| Louisiana | Vermilion | 31% | 16% | 5% | 31% | 16% | 5% | 52 | 24 | 7 |
| Maine | 21% | 7% | 1% | 21% | 7% | 1% | 34 | 10 | 2 | |
| Maine | Cumberland | 12% | 2% | <1% | 12% | 2% | <1% | 18 | 3 | 0 |
| Maine | Hancock | 11% | 4% | 1% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 16 | 6 | 1 |
| Maine | Knox | 13% | 4% | 1% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 20 | 6 | 1 |
| Maine | Lincoln | 11% | 2% | <1% | 11% | 2% | <1% | 16 | 3 | 0 |
| Maine | Sagadahoc | 11% | 2% | <1% | 11% | 2% | <1% | 17 | 3 | 0 |
| Maine | Waldo | 10% | 2% | <1% | 10% | 2% | <1% | 15 | 3 | 0 |
| Maine | Washington | 12% | 4% | 1% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 18 | 6 | 1 |
| Maine | York | 14% | 3% | 1% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 22 | 5 | 1 |
| Maryland | 31% | 11% | 1% | 31% | 11% | 1% | 52 | 16 | 1 | |
| Maryland | Anne Arundel | 12% | 1% | <1% | 12% | 1% | <1% | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| Maryland | Baltimore | 10% | 1% | <1% | 10% | 1% | <1% | 15 | 1 | 0 |
| Maryland | Baltimore City | 8% | 1% | <1% | 8% | 1% | <1% | 12 | 1 | 0 |
| Maryland | Calvert | 14% | 1% | <1% | 14% | 1% | <1% | 21 | 2 | 0 |
| Maryland | Cecil | 12% | 1% | <1% | 12% | 1% | <1% | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| Maryland | Dorchester | 17% | 3% | <1% | 17% | 3% | <1% | 26 | 5 | 0 |
| Maryland | Harford | 10% | 0% | <1% | 10% | 0% | <1% | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| Maryland | Kent | 12% | 0% | <1% | 12% | 0% | <1% | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| Maryland | Queen Anne's | 13% | 1% | <1% | 13% | 1% | <1% | 19 | 1 | 0 |
| Maryland | Somerset | 21% | 6% | <1% | 21% | 6% | <1% | 33 | 9 | 0 |
| Maryland | St. Mary's | 17% | 2% | <1% | 17% | 2% | <1% | 27 | 3 | 0 |
| Maryland | Talbot | 13% | 1% | <1% | 13% | 1% | <1% | 20 | 1 | 0 |
| Maryland | Wicomico | 18% | 4% | <1% | 18% | 4% | <1% | 28 | 6 | 0 |
| Maryland | Worcester | 24% | 9% | 1% | 24% | 9% | 1% | 38 | 13 | 1 |
| Massachusetts | 33% | 14% | 3% | 33% | 14% | 3% | 56 | 22 | 4 | |
| Massachusetts | Barnstable | 17% | 9% | 1% | 17% | 9% | 1% | 26 | 13 | 2 |
| Massachusetts | Dukes | 20% | 8% | 1% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 31 | 11 | 2 |
| Massachusetts | Essex | 14% | 5% | 1% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 22 | 7 | 1 |
| Massachusetts | Nantucket | 19% | 9% | 1% | 19% | 9% | 1% | 30 | 14 | 2 |
| Massachusetts | Norfolk | 15% | 5% | 1% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 23 | 7 | 1 |
| Massachusetts | Plymouth | 16% | 7% | 1% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 25 | 10 | 2 |
| Massachusetts | Suffolk | 14% | 5% | 1% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 22 | 7 | 1 |
| Mississippi | 53% | 28% | 8% | 53% | 28% | 8% | 106 | 47 | 11 | |
| Mississippi | Hancock | 32% | 14% | 4% | 32% | 14% | 4% | 54 | 22 | 6 |
| Mississippi | Harrison | 34% | 17% | 4% | 34% | 17% | 4% | 59 | 26 | 6 |
| Mississippi | Jackson | 32% | 16% | 6% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 55 | 24 | 8 |
| New Hampshire | 18% | 6% | 1% | 18% | 6% | 1% | 28 | 8 | 2 | |
| New Hampshire | Rockingham | 14% | 3% | 1% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 22 | 5 | 1 |
| New Jersey | 23% | 7% | 1% | 23% | 7% | 1% | 36 | 10 | 1 | |
| New Jersey | Atlantic | 17% | 7% | 1% | 17% | 7% | 1% | 27 | 10 | 1 |
| New Jersey | Burlington | 16% | 6% | <1% | 16% | 6% | <1% | 25 | 8 | 0 |
| New Jersey | Cape May | 18% | 7% | 1% | 18% | 7% | 1% | 28 | 10 | 1 |
| New Jersey | Essex | 13% | 3% | <1% | 13% | 3% | <1% | 20 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | Hudson | 13% | 3% | <1% | 13% | 3% | <1% | 20 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | Middlesex | 14% | 3% | <1% | 14% | 3% | <1% | 21 | 5 | 0 |
| New Jersey | Monmouth | 16% | 6% | 1% | 16% | 6% | 1% | 25 | 9 | 1 |
| New Jersey | Ocean | 18% | 7% | 1% | 18% | 7% | 1% | 28 | 10 | 1 |
| New Jersey | Salem | 12% | 1% | <1% | 12% | 1% | <1% | 18 | 2 | 0 |
| New Jersey | Union | 13% | 3% | <1% | 13% | 3% | <1% | 20 | 4 | 0 |
| New York | 26% | 9% | 2% | 26% | 9% | 2% | 43 | 14 | 3 | |
| New York | Bronx | 15% | 5% | 1% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 23 | 7 | 1 |
| New York | Kings | 14% | 4% | <1% | 14% | 4% | <1% | 21 | 6 | 0 |
| New York | Nassau | 16% | 6% | 1% | 16% | 6% | 1% | 24 | 8 | 2 |
| New York | New York | 17% | 6% | 1% | 17% | 6% | 1% | 26 | 9 | 1 |
| New York | Queens | 16% | 6% | 1% | 16% | 6% | 1% | 24 | 8 | 1 |
| New York | Richmond | 15% | 5% | <1% | 15% | 5% | <1% | 23 | 7 | 0 |
| New York | Suffolk | 21% | 8% | 2% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 33 | 12 | 3 |
| New York | Westchester | 16% | 5% | 1% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 24 | 7 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 68% | 38% | 8% | 68% | 38% | 8% | 159 | 68 | 11 | |
| North Carolina | Beaufort | 37% | 14% | 1% | 37% | 14% | 1% | 66 | 22 | 1 |
| North Carolina | Bertie | 33% | 10% | 1% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 57 | 15 | 1 |
| North Carolina | Brunswick | 41% | 20% | 4% | 41% | 20% | 4% | 74 | 32 | 6 |
| North Carolina | Camden | 35% | 13% | 1% | 35% | 13% | 1% | 61 | 20 | 1 |
| North Carolina | Carteret | 48% | 28% | 4% | 48% | 28% | 4% | 92 | 46 | 6 |
| North Carolina | Chowan | 29% | 11% | 1% | 29% | 11% | 1% | 49 | 17 | 1 |
| North Carolina | Craven | 42% | 20% | 1% | 42% | 20% | 1% | 76 | 31 | 1 |
| North Carolina | Currituck | 36% | 14% | 1% | 36% | 14% | 1% | 63 | 22 | 2 |
| North Carolina | Dare | 49% | 27% | 4% | 49% | 27% | 4% | 94 | 45 | 6 |
| North Carolina | Gates | 25% | 8% | <1% | 25% | 8% | <1% | 41 | 12 | 0 |
| North Carolina | Hertford | 28% | 8% | <1% | 28% | 8% | <1% | 46 | 11 | 0 |
| North Carolina | Hyde | 50% | 27% | 3% | 50% | 27% | 3% | 97 | 45 | 5 |
| North Carolina | New Hanover | 40% | 20% | 4% | 40% | 20% | 4% | 71 | 32 | 6 |
| North Carolina | Onslow | 41% | 22% | 3% | 41% | 22% | 3% | 74 | 35 | 5 |
| North Carolina | Pamlico | 40% | 20% | 1% | 40% | 20% | 1% | 73 | 31 | 2 |
| North Carolina | Pasquotank | 32% | 13% | 1% | 32% | 13% | 1% | 55 | 19 | 1 |
| North Carolina | Pender | 42% | 22% | 4% | 42% | 22% | 4% | 76 | 35 | 6 |
| North Carolina | Perquimans | 31% | 12% | 1% | 31% | 12% | 1% | 52 | 18 | 1 |
| North Carolina | Tyrrell | 36% | 17% | 1% | 36% | 17% | 1% | 64 | 26 | 2 |
| North Carolina | Washington | 34% | 13% | 1% | 34% | 13% | 1% | 58 | 19 | 1 |
| Rhode Island | 20% | 8% | 1% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 32 | 11 | 2 | |
| Rhode Island | Bristol | 14% | 6% | 1% | 14% | 6% | 1% | 21 | 8 | 2 |
| Rhode Island | Kent | 15% | 6% | 1% | 15% | 6% | 1% | 23 | 8 | 1 |
| Rhode Island | Newport | 16% | 7% | 1% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 25 | 10 | 2 |
| Rhode Island | Providence | 16% | 6% | 1% | 16% | 6% | 1% | 25 | 9 | 1 |
| Rhode Island | Washington/South | 18% | 6% | 1% | 18% | 6% | 1% | 28 | 9 | 2 |
| South Carolina | 57% | 29% | 8% | 57% | 29% | 8% | 118 | 48 | 12 | |
| South Carolina | Beaufort | 38% | 14% | 3% | 38% | 14% | 3% | 67 | 22 | 5 |
| South Carolina | Charleston | 43% | 21% | 5% | 43% | 21% | 5% | 80 | 33 | 7 |
| South Carolina | Colleton | 40% | 17% | 4% | 40% | 17% | 4% | 71 | 26 | 6 |
| South Carolina | Georgetown | 36% | 17% | 4% | 36% | 17% | 4% | 64 | 27 | 6 |
| South Carolina | Horry | 39% | 20% | 4% | 39% | 20% | 4% | 69 | 32 | 6 |
| South Carolina | Jasper | 39% | 14% | 3% | 39% | 14% | 3% | 69 | 21 | 4 |
| Texas | 61% | 36% | 16% | 61% | 36% | 16% | 133 | 64 | 24 | |
| Texas | Aransas | 19% | 11% | 5% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 30 | 16 | 7 |
| Texas | Brazoria | 30% | 16% | 5% | 30% | 16% | 5% | 51 | 25 | 7 |
| Texas | Calhoun | 25% | 13% | 5% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 41 | 20 | 7 |
| Texas | Cameron | 24% | 13% | 5% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 39 | 20 | 7 |
| Texas | Chambers | 30% | 16% | 5% | 30% | 16% | 5% | 51 | 24 | 7 |
| Texas | Galveston | 34% | 19% | 6% | 34% | 19% | 6% | 58 | 29 | 8 |
| Texas | Harris | 29% | 16% | 4% | 29% | 16% | 4% | 49 | 24 | 6 |
| Texas | Jefferson | 29% | 16% | 4% | 29% | 16% | 4% | 49 | 25 | 6 |
| Texas | Kenedy | 24% | 14% | 7% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 39 | 21 | 10 |
| Texas | Kleberg | 23% | 13% | 6% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 36 | 19 | 8 |
| Texas | Matagorda | 32% | 17% | 8% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 54 | 27 | 11 |
| Texas | Nueces | 24% | 14% | 6% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 39 | 21 | 9 |
| Texas | Refugio | 21% | 9% | 4% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 34 | 14 | 6 |
| Texas | San Patricio | 21% | 11% | 5% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 34 | 17 | 7 |
| Texas | Willacy | 22% | 13% | 6% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 35 | 19 | 8 |
| Virginia | 46% | 20% | 1% | 46% | 20% | 1% | 86 | 31 | 2 | |
| Virginia | Accomack | 27% | 9% | <1% | 27% | 9% | <1% | 44 | 13 | 0 |
| Virginia | Gloucester | 21% | 5% | <1% | 21% | 5% | <1% | 34 | 7 | 0 |
| Virginia | Hampton | 27% | 8% | <1% | 27% | 8% | <1% | 44 | 12 | 0 |
| Virginia | Lancaster | 20% | 3% | <1% | 20% | 3% | <1% | 31 | 5 | 0 |
| Virginia | Mathews | 21% | 5% | <1% | 21% | 5% | <1% | 34 | 7 | 0 |
| Virginia | Middlesex | 21% | 3% | <1% | 21% | 3% | <1% | 33 | 5 | 0 |
| Virginia | Newport News | 22% | 6% | <1% | 22% | 6% | <1% | 35 | 8 | 0 |
| Virginia | Norfolk | 26% | 8% | <1% | 26% | 8% | <1% | 42 | 12 | 0 |
| Virginia | Northampton | 27% | 9% | <1% | 27% | 9% | <1% | 44 | 13 | 0 |
| Virginia | Northumberland | 19% | 3% | <1% | 19% | 3% | <1% | 30 | 5 | 0 |
| Virginia | Poquoson | 24% | 6% | <1% | 24% | 6% | <1% | 38 | 9 | 0 |
| Virginia | Portsmouth | 24% | 7% | <1% | 24% | 7% | <1% | 38 | 10 | 0 |
| Virginia | Suffolk | 25% | 8% | <1% | 25% | 8% | <1% | 41 | 11 | 0 |
| Virginia | Virginia Beach | 30% | 12% | <1% | 30% | 12% | <1% | 50 | 18 | 0 |
| Virginia | York | 25% | 6% | <1% | 25% | 6% | <1% | 40 | 9 | 0 |
| Canada | 51% | 29% | 1% | 51% | 29% | 1% | 100 | 48 | 2 | |
| New Brunswick | 33% | 8% | 1% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 57 | 11 | 1 | |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 26% | 16% | 1% | 26% | 16% | 1% | 43 | 24 | 1 | |
| Nova Scotia | 42% | 27% | 1% | 42% | 27% | 1% | 77 | 44 | 1 | |
| Prince Edward Island | 9% | 6% | <1% | 9% | 6% | <1% | 14 | 9 | 0 | |
| Mexico | 76% | 44% | 19% | 76% | 44% | 19% | 204 | 83 | 29 | |
| Campeche | 47% | 21% | 5% | 47% | 21% | 5% | 89 | 33 | 7 | |
| Quintana Roo | 63% | 33% | 15% | 63% | 33% | 15% | 139 | 57 | 23 | |
| Tabasco | 25% | 6% | <1% | 25% | 6% | <1% | 40 | 8 | 0 | |
| Tamaulipas | 47% | 26% | 9% | 47% | 26% | 9% | 89 | 43 | 14 | |
| Veracruz | 44% | 20% | 3% | 44% | 20% | 3% | 83 | 32 | 4 | |
| Yucatan | 53% | 26% | 12% | 53% | 26% | 12% | 107 | 43 | 18 | |
| Anguilla | 35% | 18% | 8% | 35% | 18% | 8% | 61 | 28 | 12 | |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 28% | 15% | 7% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 46 | 23 | 10 | |
| Aruba | 10% | 5% | <1% | 10% | 5% | <1% | 15 | 7 | 0 | |
| Bahamas, The | 81% | 53% | 30% | 81% | 53% | 30% | 237 | 106 | 50 | |
| Barbados | 28% | 6% | 1% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 47 | 9 | 2 | |
| Belize | 42% | 19% | 6% | 42% | 19% | 6% | 76 | 30 | 9 | |
| Bermuda | 40% | 26% | 11% | 40% | 26% | 11% | 71 | 42 | 17 | |
| Bonaire | 8% | 3% | <1% | 8% | 3% | <1% | 11 | 5 | 0 | |
| Cabo Verde | 16% | 3% | <1% | 16% | 3% | <1% | 25 | 4 | 0 | |
| Cayman Islands | 40% | 23% | 8% | 40% | 23% | 8% | 71 | 37 | 11 | |
| Costa Rica | 6% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| Cuba | 76% | 51% | 25% | 76% | 51% | 25% | 204 | 102 | 41 | |
| Curacao | 9% | 4% | <1% | 9% | 4% | <1% | 13 | 6 | 0 | |
| Dominica | 33% | 14% | 7% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 57 | 21 | 10 | |
| Dominican Republic | 58% | 35% | 17% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 123 | 61 | 26 | |
| Grenada | 28% | 7% | 1% | 28% | 7% | 1% | 46 | 10 | 1 | |
| Guadeloupe | 34% | 18% | 7% | 34% | 18% | 7% | 59 | 28 | 10 | |
| Guatemala | 38% | 15% | 3% | 38% | 15% | 3% | 68 | 23 | 4 | |
| Haiti | 44% | 26% | 9% | 44% | 26% | 9% | 82 | 42 | 14 | |
| Honduras | 64% | 28% | 11% | 64% | 28% | 11% | 146 | 46 | 16 | |
| Jamaica | 46% | 23% | 8% | 46% | 23% | 8% | 88 | 36 | 12 | |
| Martinique | 34% | 11% | 4% | 34% | 11% | 4% | 59 | 17 | 6 | |
| Montserrat | 26% | 14% | 6% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 43 | 22 | 8 | |
| Nicaragua | 36% | 16% | 8% | 36% | 16% | 8% | 62 | 25 | 11 | |
| Panama | 1% | 1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Puerto Rico | 40% | 24% | 9% | 40% | 24% | 9% | 73 | 38 | 14 | |
| Saba | 24% | 15% | 6% | 24% | 15% | 6% | 39 | 23 | 9 | |
| Saint Kitts and Nevis | 34% | 20% | 9% | 34% | 20% | 9% | 59 | 32 | 13 | |
| Saint Lucia | 40% | 10% | 3% | 40% | 10% | 3% | 73 | 15 | 5 | |
| Saint Martin | 26% | 15% | 8% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 43 | 23 | 11 | |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 41% | 9% | 1% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 74 | 13 | 2 | |
| Sint Eustatius | 25% | 15% | 8% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 40 | 23 | 11 | |
| Sint Maarten | 26% | 15% | 8% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 43 | 23 | 11 | |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 8% | 2% | <1% | 8% | 2% | <1% | 11 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turks and Caicos | 40% | 20% | 11% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 73 | 32 | 16 | |
| UK Virgin Islands | 39% | 22% | 10% | 39% | 22% | 10% | 69 | 35 | 15 | |
| US Virgin Islands | 33% | 19% | 8% | 33% | 19% | 8% | 57 | 30 | 12 |