Seasonal hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach, releases the first forecast for the upcoming 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season.
(2024-05-01) -- written by Levi Silvers
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be extremely active. The Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity are predicted to be about 170% of their long-term averages (1991-2020). The forecast team is forecasting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 210 (the average is 123). Because of the anticipated active season, there is a higher than average probability of major hurricanes making landfall. There is a 62% probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline and a 66% probability for a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean.
The Department of Atmospheric Science has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984 and an April forecast has been issued since 1995. The forecasts are based on a combination of a statistical model and an ensemble of dynamical model predictions. One of the primary goals for issuing such a forecast is to raise public awareness about tropical cyclones, the upcoming season, and the need to prepare in advance for potential community impacts from the anticipated extreme weather. This seasons April forecast was a particular success, having been incorporated into 5830 news stories. In addition, the Tropical Weather and Climate Research group, led by Professor Michael Bell, conducted numerous interviews with media outlets. In addition to the authors of the forecast, 5 of the graduate students in the Tropical Weather and Climate Research group were able to give interviews, share their expertise, and communicate the science they are passionate about to the public.
For the official press release or the full forecast see the links below