Zhao, H., S. Chen, P. J. Klotzbach, and G. B. Raga: Impact of the extended boreal summer Madden-Julian Oscillation on western North Pacific tropical cloud cluster genesis productivity. Manuscript submitted to J. Climate in February 2018.

J. Weinkle, R. Pielke Jr., C. Landsea, D. Collins, R. Masulin, R. P. Crompton, and P. J. Klotzbach: Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States: 1900-2017. Manuscript submitted to Nature Sustainability in March 2018.

Zhao, H., S. Chen, G. B. Raga, P. J. Klotzbach, and L. Wu: Recent decrease in genesis productivity of tropical cloud clusters over the western North Pacific. Manuscript submitted to Climate Dyn. in May 2018.

Song, J., P. J. Klotzbach, J. Ting, and Y. Wang: The increasing variability of tropical cyclone maximum lifetime intensity. Manuscript submitted to Science Advances in June 2018.

P. J. Klotzbach, S. Abhik, H. H. Hendon, M. M. Bell, C. Lucas, A. Marshall, and E. C. J. Oliver: On the emerging relationship between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation and the Madden-Julian oscillation. Manuscript submitted to Scientific Reports in June 2018.

Zhao, H., L. Wu, C. Wang, and P. J. Klotzbach: Consistent late onset of the western North Pacific tropical cyclone season following major El Nino events. Manuscript submitted to J. Meteor. Soc. Japan in August 2018.

In Press

Klotzbach, P. J., C. J. Schreck III, J. M. Collins, M. M. Bell, E. S. Blake, and D. R. Roache: The extremely active 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.

Wahiduzzaman, M., E. C. J. Oliver, P. J. Klotzbach, S. J. Wotherspoon, and N. J. Holbrook: A statistical seasonal forecast model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones using the quasi-biennial oscillation. Int. Journ. Clim., in press.

Zhao, H., X. Jiang, L. Wu, and P. J. Klotzbach: Multi-scale interactions of equatorial waves associated with tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific. Climate Dyn., in press. Link

Zhao, H., X. Duan, G. B. Raga, and P. J. Klotzbach: Changes in characteristics of rapidly intensifying western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to climate regime shifts. J. Climate, in press. Link


Song, J., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2018: What has controlled the poleward migration of annual averaged location of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity over the western North Pacific since 1961? Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1148-1156, doi: 10.1002/2017GL076883. Link

Zhao, H., G. B. Raga, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2018: Impact of the boreal summer quasi-biweekly oscillation on Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Int. Journ. Clim., 38, 1353-1365, doi: 10.1002/joc.5250. Link

Wang, S.-Y., L. Zhao, J.-H. Yoon, P. J. Klotzbach, and R. Gillies, 2018: Attribution of climate effects on Hurricane Harvey’s extreme rainfall in Texas. Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 054014, Link

Patricola, C. M., S. J. Camargo, P. J. Klotzbach, R. Saravanan, and P. Chang: The influence of ENSO flavors on Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 31, 5395-5416, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., S. G. Bowen, R. Pielke Jr., and M. M. Bell, 2018: Continental United States landfall frequency and associated damage: Observations and future risks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 1359-1376, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0184.1. Link


Saunders, M. A., P. J. Klotzbach, and A. S. R. Lea, 2017: Replicating annual North Atlantic hurricane activity 1878-2012 from environmental variables. JGR-Atmospheres, 122, 6284-6297, doi: 10.1002/2017JD026492. Link

Ghelani, R. P. S., E. C. J. Oliver, N. J. Holbrook, M. C. Wheeler, and P. J. Klotzbach, 2017: Joint modulation of intraseasonal rainfall in tropical Australia by the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10,754-10,761, doi: 10.1002/2017GL075452. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., J. C. L. Chan, P. J. Fitzpatrick, W. M. Frank, C. W. Landsea, and J. L. McBride, 2017: The science of William M. Gray: His contributions to the knowledge of tropical meteorology and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 98, 2311-2336, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0116.1. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., E. C. J. Oliver, R. Leeper, and C. J. Schreck III, 2016: The relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and southeastern New England snowfall, Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 1355-1362. Link

Collins, J. M., P. J. Klotzbach, R. N. Maue, D. R. Roache, E. S. Blake, C. H. Paxton and C. A. Mehta, 2016: The record-breaking 2015 hurricane season in the Eastern North Pacific: An analysis of environmental conditions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9217-9224, doi: 10.1002/2016GL070597. Link

Song, J., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2016: Wind structure discrepancies between two best-track data sets for western North Pacific tropical cyclones. J. Climate, 45, 4533-4551, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0163.1. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., and E. C. J. Oliver, 2015: Modulation of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) from 1905-2011, J. Climate, 28, 204-217. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., and E. C. J. Oliver, 2015: Variations in global tropical cyclone activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation since the midtwentieth century, Geophys. Res. Lett, 42, 4199-4207, doi: 10.1002/2015GL063966. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., W. M. Gray, and C. T. Fogarty, 2015: Active Atlantic hurricane era at its end? Nature Geoscience, 8, 737-738, doi:10.1038/ngeo2529. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., and C. W. Landsea, 2015: Extremely intense hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 years, J. Climate, 28, 7621-7629. Link

Moon, I-J, S-H Kim, P. J. Klotzbach, and J. C. L. Chan, 2015: Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shift of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones, Envi. Res. Lett, 10, 104004, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004. Link

Walsh, K. J., J. L. McBride, P. J. Klotzbach, S. Balachandran, S. J. Camargo, G. Holland, T. R. Knutson, J. Kossin, T.-C. Lee, and A. Sobel, 2015: Tropical cyclones and climate change, WIREs Climate Change, doi: 1002/wcc.371. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., 2014: The Madden-Julian Oscillation’s impacts on worldwide tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 27, 2317-2330. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., 2014: Prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin accumulated cyclone energy from 1 July. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 115-121. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., and E. S. Blake, 2013: North Central Pacific tropical cyclones: Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J. Climate, 26, 7720-7733. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., 2012: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Atlantic basin tropical cyclone rapid intensification. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D14104, doi:10.1029/2012JD017714. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: The influence of El Niño – Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on Caribbean tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 24, 721-731, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3705.1. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: El Niño – Southern Oscillation’s Impact on Atlantic Basin hurricanes and U.S. landfalls. J. Climate, 24, 1252-1263, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3799.1. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: A simplified Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction scheme from 1 August. Geophys. Res. Lett, 38, L16710, doi:10.1029/2011GL048603. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: Forecasting October-November Caribbean hurricane days. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D18117, doi:10.1029/2011JD016146. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., 2010: On the Madden-Julian oscillation – Atlantic hurricane relationship. J. Climate, 23, 282-293. Link

Christy, J. R., B. Herman, R. Pielke Sr., P. J. Klotzbach, R. T. McNider, J. Hnilo, R. W. Spencer, T. Chase, and D. Douglass, 2010: What do observational datasets say about modeled tropospheric temperature trends since 1979? Remote Sensing, 2, 2148-2169, doi:10.3390/rs2092148. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2009: 25 years of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09711, doi:10.1029/2009GL037580. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., R. A. Pielke Sr., R. A. Pielke Jr., J. Christy, R. McNider, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D21102, doi:10.1029/2009JD011841. Link

Grossmann, I., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2009: A review of North Atlantic modes of natural variability and their driving mechanisms. J. Geophys. Res, 114, D24107, doi: 10.1029/2009JD012728. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2008: Multi-decadal variability in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 21, 3929-3935. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., 2008: Refinements to Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction from 1 December. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D17109, doi:10.1029/2008JD010047. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., 2007: Recent developments in statistical prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Tellus A, 59, 511-518. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., 2007: Revised prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August. Wea. and Forecasting, 22, 937-949. Link

Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, P. J. Klotzbach, and C. W. Landsea, 2007: Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts. WMO Bull., 56, 297-309. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., 2006: Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–2005), Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10805, doi:10.1029/2006GL025881. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2006: Causes of the unusually destructive 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1325-1333. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2005: Summary of 2004 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity and verification of seasonal forecasts. Shore and Beach, 73, 20-24. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2004: Updated 6-11-month prediction of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity. Wea. and Forecasting, 19, 917-934. Link


Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2003: Forecasting September Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Wea. and Forecasting, 18, 1109-1128. Link

Book Chapters

Klotzbach, P. J., M. A. Saunders, G. D. Bell, and E. S. Blake, 2017: North Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction: Underlying science and an evaluation of statistical models. Chapter 19 in “Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms”, S. Wang et al., Eds., 14 pp, AGU monograph. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., A. Barnston, G. D. Bell, S. Camargo, J. C. L. Chan, A. Lea, M. Saunders, and F. Vitart, 2015: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones. Chapter in “Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting”, C. Guard, Ed., 28 pp. Link

Bulletin of the AMS State of the Climate Sidebars

Klotzbach, P. J., 2017: Record-setting North Atlantic Hurricane Matthew. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, S106-S107. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., and C. T. Fogarty, 2016: The record-shattering 2015 Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, S127-S128. Link

Klotzbach, P. J., and C. T. Fogarty, 2015: 2013 vs. 2014 Atlantic hurricane activity – A brief comparison of two below-average seasons. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, S104-S105. Link

Fogarty, C. T., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2014: The 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season: Blip or flip? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, S106-S107. Link