@article{Burnett_etal_2021,
author = {Burnett, Adam C. and Sheshadri, Aditi and Silvers, Levi G. and Robinson, Thomas},
title = {Tropical Cyclone Frequency Under Varying SSTs in Aquaplanet Simulations},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
year = {2021},
volume = {48},
number = {5},
pages = {e2020GL091980},
keywords = {aquaplanet simulations, climate dynamics, hurricane frequency, idealized modeling, intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091980},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL091980},
eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2020GL091980},
note = {e2020GL091980 2020GL091980},
abstract = {Abstract Global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is investigated in a 50-km-resolution aquaplanet model forced by zonally symmetric sea surface temperature (SST). TC frequency per unit area is found to be proportional to the Coriolis parameter at the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), as defined by the latitude of maximum precipitation. As the latitude of maximum SST is shifted northward from the equator, the precipitation maximum moves northward and TC frequency increases. When the SST maximum is shifted northward past 25°N, the precipitation maximum remains between 15°N and 20°N, and TC frequency per unit area is approximately constant. When applied to observed precipitation and SST data, the same scaling captures a substantial fraction of observed TCs. Results suggest that future changes in TC activity will be modulated by changes in the large-scale circulation, and in particular that the ITCZ location is an important determinant of the number of TCs.}
}